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UFC FIGHT Saturday, April 11, 2026 5:00 PM ET
Rodrigo Nascimento
"Ze Colmeia"
Rodrigo Nascimento
11-3-0 (0 KO, 2 SUB)
VS
Alexandr Romanov
"King Kong"
Alexandr Romanov
18-3-0 (1 KO, 3 SUB)
47.7%
52.3%
PMill Win Probability
Total Rounds (2.5)
D
RECOMMENDED BET
No bet - Edge not strong enough
54.6% Confidence on Alexandr Romanov
Lean: Alexandr Romanov ML
Rodrigo Implied 28.5%
PMill Probability 47.7%
Value Edge +19.2%
Striking
Alexandr
32.5
Grappling
Alexandr
18.2
Physical
Rodrigo
35.0
Finishing
Alexandr
6.2

Detailed Edge Breakdown

Rodrigo vs Alexandr
Striking
3.71
Striking Volume
3.78
47%
Strike Accuracy
51%
44%
Strike Defense
54%
4.34
Strikes Absorbed
2.13
Grappling
1.02
Takedown Offense
4.49
37%
Takedown Accuracy
55%
60%
Takedown Defense
28%
0.50
Submission Threat
0.90
Physical
80.0"
Reach +5.0" edge
75.0"
74.0"
Height Even
74.0"
Finishing
0%
KO Power
6%
18%
Submission Rate
17%
18%
Finish Rate
22%
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
Rodrigo L L W W W
Alexandr W L W L L
Rodrigo
L vs Alexandr Romanov DEC
L vs Derrick Lewis KO/TKO
W vs Don'Tale Mayes DEC
W vs Ilir Latifi DEC
W vs Tanner Boser DEC
Alexandr
W vs Rodrigo Nascimento DEC
L vs Jailton Almeida SUB
W vs Blagoy Ivanov DEC
L vs Alexander Volkov KO/TKO
L vs Marcin Tybura DEC

Tale of the Tape

6' 2" Height 6' 2"
80" Reach 75"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
11-3-0 Record 18-3-0

Win Methods

Rodrigo
KO/TKO 0
0%
Submission 2
18%
Decision 3
27%
Alexandr
KO/TKO 1
6%
Submission 3
17%
Decision 3
17%

Odds Comparison

Sportsbook Rodrigo Alexandr
JustBet BEST -
Book_130 BEST -