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UFC FIGHT Saturday, April 11, 2026 8:50 PM ET
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
Paulo Costa
16-4-0 (5 KO, 0 SUB)
VS
Azamat Murzakanov
"The Professional"
Azamat Murzakanov
16-1-0 (6 KO, 0 SUB)
49.3%
50.7%
PMill Win Probability
Total Rounds (2.5)
D
RECOMMENDED BET
No bet - Too close to call
50% Confidence on Even
Lean: Even ML
Paulo Implied 31.4%
PMill Probability 49.3%
Value Edge +17.9%
Striking
Azamat
5.6
Grappling
Azamat
2.9
Physical
Paulo
23.8
Finishing
Azamat
9.1

Detailed Edge Breakdown

Paulo vs Azamat
Striking
6.15
Striking Volume
4.40
59%
Strike Accuracy
56%
49%
Strike Defense
56%
5.96
Strikes Absorbed
3.20
Grappling
0.30
Takedown Offense
0.68
42%
Takedown Accuracy
20%
77%
Takedown Defense
88%
0.00
Submission Threat
0.20
Physical
72.0"
Reach +1.0" edge
71.0"
73.0"
Height +3.0" edge
70.0"
Finishing
31%
KO Power
38%
31%
Finish Rate
38%
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
Paulo W W L L W
Azamat L W W W W
Paulo
W vs Azamat Murzakanov KO/TKO
W vs Roman Kopylov DEC
L vs Sean Strickland DEC
L vs Robert Whittaker DEC
W vs Luke Rockhold DEC
Azamat
L vs Paulo Costa KO/TKO
W vs Aleksandar Rakic KO/TKO
W vs Brendson Ribeiro KO/TKO
W vs Alonzo Menifield KO/TKO
W vs Dustin Jacoby DEC

Tale of the Tape

6' 1" Height 5' 10"
72" Reach 71"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
16-4-0 Record 16-1-0

Win Methods

Paulo
KO/TKO 5
31%
Submission 0
0%
Decision 3
19%
Azamat
KO/TKO 6
38%
Submission 0
0%
Decision 1
6%

Odds Comparison

Sportsbook Paulo Azamat
Bovada BEST -
BetUS BEST -