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UFC FIGHT Saturday, April 11, 2026 5:45 PM ET
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
Esteban Ribovics
15-2-0 (2 KO, 0 SUB)
VS
Mateusz Gamrot
"Gamer"
Mateusz Gamrot
25-4-0 (3 KO, 1 SUB)
48.4%
51.6%
PMill Win Probability
Total Rounds (2.5)
D
RECOMMENDED BET
No bet - Edge not strong enough
53.3% Confidence on Mateusz Gamrot
Lean: Mateusz Gamrot ML
Esteban Implied 32.4%
PMill Probability 48.4%
Value Edge +16.0%
Striking
Mateusz
5.2
Grappling
Mateusz
22.2
Physical
Mateusz
7.0
Finishing
Mateusz
3.0

Detailed Edge Breakdown

Esteban vs Mateusz
Striking
8.09
Striking Volume
3.29
43%
Strike Accuracy
51%
54%
Strike Defense
59%
6.30
Strikes Absorbed
2.96
Grappling
0.39
Takedown Offense
5.15
66%
Takedown Accuracy
37%
70%
Takedown Defense
83%
0.20
Submission Threat
0.10
Physical
69.0"
Reach +1.0" edge
70.0"
70.0"
Height Even
70.0"
Finishing
13%
KO Power
12%
0%
Submission Rate
4%
13%
Finish Rate
16%
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
Esteban NC W L W W
Mateusz NC L W L W
Esteban
NC vs Mateusz Gamrot DEC
W vs Elves Brener DEC
L vs Nasrat Haqparast DEC
W vs Daniel Zellhuber DEC
W vs Terrance McKinney KO/TKO
Mateusz
NC vs Esteban Ribovics DEC
L vs Charles Oliveira SUB
W vs Ludovit Klein DEC
L vs Dan Hooker DEC
W vs Rafael Dos Anjos DEC

Tale of the Tape

5' 10" Height 5' 10"
69" Reach 70"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
15-2-0 Record 25-4-0

Win Methods

Esteban
KO/TKO 2
13%
Submission 0
0%
Decision 3
20%
Mateusz
KO/TKO 3
12%
Submission 1
4%
Decision 4
16%

Odds Comparison

Sportsbook Esteban Mateusz
Bet365 BEST -
Heritage BEST -