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UFC FIGHT Saturday, April 11, 2026 4:40 PM ET CBS / Paramount
Marquel Mederos
 
Marquel Mederos
11-1-0 (1 KO, 0 SUB)
VS
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
Chris Padilla
17-6-0 (2 KO, 1 SUB)
47.7%
52.3%
PMill Win Probability
Total Rounds (2.5)
D
RECOMMENDED BET
No bet - Edge not strong enough
54.5% Confidence on Chris Padilla
Lean: Chris Padilla ML
Marquel Implied 42.9%
PMill Probability 47.7%
Value Edge +4.8%
Striking
Marquel
12.6
Grappling
Chris
29.6
Physical
Chris
29.4
Finishing
Chris
11.1

Detailed Edge Breakdown

Marquel vs Chris
Striking
4.84
Striking Volume
4.78
56%
Strike Accuracy
54%
58%
Strike Defense
55%
2.99
Strikes Absorbed
3.87
Grappling
0.00
Takedown Offense
1.18
0%
Takedown Accuracy
30%
83%
Takedown Defense
75%
0.00
Submission Threat
0.40
Physical
69.0"
Reach +5.0" edge
74.0"
70.0"
Height +1.0" edge
69.0"
Finishing
9%
KO Power
12%
0%
Submission Rate
6%
9%
Finish Rate
18%
Recent Form (Last 5 Fights)
Marquel NC W W W W
Chris NC W W W W
Marquel
NC vs Chris Padilla DEC
W vs Mark Choinski DEC
W vs Austin Hubbard DEC
W vs Landon Quinones DEC
W vs Issa Isakov KO/TKO
Chris
NC vs MarQuel Mederos DEC
W vs Ismael Bonfim KO/TKO
W vs Jai Herbert DEC
W vs Rongzhu KO/TKO
W vs James Llontop SUB

Tale of the Tape

5' 10" Height 5' 9"
69" Reach 74"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
11-1-0 Record 17-6-0

Win Methods

Marquel
KO/TKO 1
9%
Submission 0
0%
Decision 3
27%
Chris
KO/TKO 2
12%
Submission 1
6%
Decision 1
6%

Odds Comparison

Sportsbook Marquel Chris
BetOnline BEST -
Book_130 BEST -