NBA

Spread · Totals · Moneyline — PMill 22-factor model

PMill picks
Record · 30 days
Full record & ledger → Odds table

 

How PMill grades NBA picks

  • A+ 3u · strongest edge
  • A 2u
  • B 1u

The model prices every game, then compares its probability with the market. A pick is published only when the edge clears the grade's bar. Everything else is labelled No edge.

Held means a pick is waiting on a confirmed starter. Paused means that market is tracked privately until it proves out again.

Every published pick is logged at its publish price. ROI uses the real price where we stored one (-110 otherwise) and beat the close is how often the closing line moved toward our pick.

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