MLB picks
MLB Tropicana Field 🏟 Roof closed — weather neutral
Away

Milwaukee Brewers

103-59
@ Proj 4.49–3.45
Home

Tampa Bay Rays

98-64
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 4.6% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
MIL -136 open -131 55.1% —
TB +113 open +109 44.9% —
Run line 4.6% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
MIL -1.5 +140 41.7% w/ vig 39.8% —
TB +1.5 -170 63.0% w/ vig 60.2% —
Total 4.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -110 52.4% w/ vig 50.0% —
Under u6.5 -110 52.4% w/ vig 50.0% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Run Line
ML
O/U
MIL
-1.5 +140
-136
O 6.5 -110
TB
+1.5 -170
+113
U 6.5 -110

Model vs market

Projected score
MIL 4.49 – TB 3.45
Projected total
7.94
Market 6.5 · model +1.4
Projected margin
MIL 1.0
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
MIL ML Moneyline · -136 55.1% 58.2% — — 🔒
TB ML Moneyline · +113 44.9% 41.8% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -110 50.0% 58.8% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -110 50.0% 41.2% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 18 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Pitching, hitting & bullpen Brighter bar = better

Starting pitchers Pitch tracking · season stats · as of 2026-10-28
Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) Starter TBD
2.51
ERA
4.20
0.92
WHIP
1.30
12.7
K / 9
8.5

Model skill blends xERA, K−BB%, FIP and ERA, regressed toward league average with 70 IP of ballast.

Offense Batted-ball tracking · season stats · as of 2026-10-28
5.14
Runs / game
4.54
5.71
Runs / game, last 7
4.00
0.321
Team xwOBA league 0.314
0.304
0.328
Team wOBA
0.320
0.744
OPS
0.728
0.341
On-base %
0.326
0.403
Slugging
0.402
0.258
Batting avg
0.258
7.4%
Barrel %
5.7%
40.3%
Hard-hit %
34.6%
89.4 mph
Avg exit velocity
88.0 mph
Bullpen & workload Season stats · as of 2026-10-28
3.40
Bullpen ERA league 4.09
3.99
3.45
High-leverage arms ERA
4.00
1.23
Bullpen WHIP
1.20
8.9
Bullpen K / 9
8.4
72%
Save %
75%
149
Pitches thrown, last 3 days (weighted)
184
1.000
Fatigue multiplier above 1.000 = more runs expected
1.000
Team pitching Season stats
3.51
Team ERA
3.70
1.18
Team WHIP
1.14

Starting pitchers & lineups

Waiting on probable pitchers — pick posts when both starters are announced.
Milwaukee Brewers
Pitcher Jacob Misiorowski Probable
RHP · 5 days rest · 78 pitches last out
Lineup not posted yet
Tired bullpen arms: Antonio Senzatela, Aaron Ashby
Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher TBD Unconfirmed
Lineup not posted yet
Tired bullpen arms: Cam Booser, Tyler Wells, Nick Martinez, Ian Seymour

Park & game conditions

Park factor
0.94
Tropicana Field · runs (1.00 = average) · HR 1.05
Weather at first pitch
Roof closed — weather neutral
Weather run multiplier x1.000
Run multipliers
MIL x0.979 · TB x0.989
Starter, bullpen, platoon, lineup and luck adjustments combined

Park factors: 3-year batted-ball index. Weather: forecast at first pitch; retractable roofs are not priced.

Form & trends

Trends
  • MIL scoring 5.7 runs / game over the last 7
  • TB scoring 4.0 runs / game over the last 7

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Pitch trackingSeason statsBatted-ball trackingWeather forecastOdds: sportsbook consensus

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