Back to College Football Picks
EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Alabama Crimson Tide

1-0
Halftime
13 – 14

Kentucky Wildcats

1-0
1H 7–7
2H 6–7
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Kroger Field
ALA 55%
45% UK
ALA 18.2 – 16.4 UK projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
ALA
-8.5 -110
-355
O 47.5 -110
UK
+8.5 -110
+280
U 47.5 -110

Best Pick

🔒 Locked

Buy credits or subscribe for $39.99/mo

Model Analysis 🔒

+23.9 Favors Kentucky Wildcats (UK) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market UK +8.5 Model UK +1.9
6.6 pt edge → UK covers · pick Kentucky Wildcats +8.5
Total (O/U)
Market 47.5 Model 34.6
12.9 pt edge → Under · pick Under 47.5
Moneyline
Model: UK 45% win Market UK +280
19.1% edge · pick Kentucky Wildcats ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors UK, − favors ALA.

Power / Efficiency +34.4
ALAUK
Favors UK
Situational +38.0
ALAUK
Favors UK
Sharp Money +61.8
ALAUK
Favors UK
Matchup -75.2
ALAUK
Favors ALA
How factors were scored · 11 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

ALA Factor value UK
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 UK
5.94
8.30
Kentucky Wildcats: 8.30 vs Alabama Crimson Tide: 5.94
Scoring Power (PPG) -42 ALA
48.0
45.0
Kentucky Wildcats: 45.0 vs Alabama Crimson Tide: 48.0
Defensive Strength -47 ALA
10.0
13.0
Kentucky Wildcats allows 13.0 vs Alabama Crimson Tide: 10.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 UK
8.1
11.1
Kentucky Wildcats: 11.1 vs Alabama Crimson Tide: 8.1
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +100 UK
4.6
6.0
Kentucky Wildcats: 6.0 vs Alabama Crimson Tide: 4.6
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 UK
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +29 UK
20.0
29.0
Money 29% vs tickets 20% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 UK
80.0
20.0
Contrarian: public 20% home
Sharp vs Public (Total) +67 EVEN
28.0
49.0
Total money 49% over vs tickets 28%
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 ALA
53.3%
37.5%
Kentucky Wildcats: 37.5% vs Alabama Crimson Tide: 53.3%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -47 ALA
1.0
0.0
Kentucky Wildcats: 0.0 vs Alabama Crimson Tide: 1.0

Team Stats Comparison

ALA Stat UK
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
48.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
45.0
5.94
Yards / Play
8.30
260
Pass Yards / Game
301
227
Rush Yards / Game
205
8.1
Yards / Pass Att
11.1
4.6
Yards / Carry
6.0
59.4
Completion %
66.7
53.3
3rd Down %
37.5
82
Plays / Game
61
Defense
10.0
Points Allowed
13.0
3.68
YPP Allowed
4.49
160
Pass Yds Allowed
246
2
Rush Yds Allowed
59
8.4
Opp Yards / Pass Att
6.5
1.0
Sacks / Game
0.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+38.0
Point Diff / Game
+32.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 31736 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
ALA
80%
of tickets
UK
20%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
ALA
71%
of handle
UK
29%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
72%
of tickets
Over
28%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

ALA
No report
UK
No report
82°F 12

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected ALA 18.2 – UK 16.4

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.