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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Oklahoma Sooners

1-0
Final
10 – 17

Michigan Wolverines

1-0
Q1 0–7
Q2 0–3
Q3 7–0
Q4 3–7
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Michigan Stadium
OU 46%
54% MICH
OU 17.4 – 18.9 MICH projected

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Spread
ML
O/U
OU
-5.5 -110
-230
O 43.5 -110
MICH
+5.5 -110
+190
U 43.5 -110

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Model Analysis 🔒

-8.3 Favors Oklahoma Sooners (OU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market MICH +5.5 Model MICH -1.5
7.0 pt edge → MICH covers · pick Michigan Wolverines +5.5
Total (O/U)
Market 43.5 Model 36.3
7.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 43.5
Moneyline
Model: MICH 54% win Market MICH +190
23.4% edge · pick Oklahoma Sooners ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors MICH, − favors OU.

Power / Efficiency -73.4
OUMICH
Favors OU
Situational +38.0
OUMICH
Favors MICH
Sharp Money +100.0
OUMICH
Favors MICH
Matchup -100.0
OUMICH
Favors OU
How factors were scored · 7 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

OU Factor value MICH
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -74 OU
6.80
5.63
Michigan Wolverines: 5.63 vs Oklahoma Sooners: 6.80
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 OU
51.0
13.0
Michigan Wolverines: 13.0 vs Oklahoma Sooners: 51.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 OU
12.2
7.4
Michigan Wolverines: 7.4 vs Oklahoma Sooners: 12.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -16 EVEN
4.4
4.2
Michigan Wolverines: 4.2 vs Oklahoma Sooners: 4.4
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 MICH
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 MICH
79.0
21.0
Contrarian: public 21% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 OU
54.5%
30.0%
Michigan Wolverines: 30.0% vs Oklahoma Sooners: 54.5%

Team Stats Comparison

OU Stat MICH
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
51.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
13.0
6.80
Yards / Play
5.63
231
Pass Yards / Game
170
170
Rush Yards / Game
106
12.2
Yards / Pass Att
7.4
4.4
Yards / Carry
4.2
63.2
Completion %
52.2
54.5
3rd Down %
30.0
59
Plays / Game
49
Defense
0.0
Points Allowed
12.0
3.30
YPP Allowed
3.20
86
Pass Yds Allowed
89
112
Rush Yds Allowed
132
4.8
Opp Yards / Pass Att
4.2
1.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
+0.0
Point Diff / Game
+1.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 53526 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
OU
79%
of tickets
MICH
21%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
OU
80%
of handle
MICH
20%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
60%
of tickets
Over
40%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

OU
No report
MICH
No report
83°F 1

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected OU 17.4 – MICH 18.9

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.