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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Washington State Cougars

0-1
Final
7 – 34

Kansas State Wildcats

1-0
Q1 0–3
Q2 7–14
Q3 0–10
Q4 0–7
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Bill Snyder Family Stadium
WSU 12%
88% KSU
WSU 9.0 – 51.9 KSU projected

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Spread
ML
O/U
WSU
+17.5 -110
+650
O 48.5 -110
KSU
-17.5 -110
-1000
U 48.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+50.6 Favors Kansas State Wildcats (KSU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market KSU -17.5 Model KSU -42.9
25.4 pt edge → KSU covers
Total (O/U)
Market 48.5 Model 60.9
3.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 48.5
Moneyline
Model: KSU 88% win Market KSU -1000
2.9% edge

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors KSU, − favors WSU.

Power / Efficiency +100.0
WSUKSU
Favors KSU
Situational +38.0
WSUKSU
Favors KSU
Sharp Money +100.0
WSUKSU
Favors KSU
Matchup -100.0
WSUKSU
Favors WSU
How factors were scored · 8 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

WSU Factor value KSU
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 KSU
4.10
7.87
Kansas State Wildcats: 7.87 vs Washington State Cougars: 4.10
Scoring Power (PPG) +100 KSU
10.0
71.0
Kansas State Wildcats: 71.0 vs Washington State Cougars: 10.0
Defensive Strength +100 KSU
24.0
3.0
Kansas State Wildcats allows 3.0 vs Washington State Cougars: 24.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 KSU
5.7
9.1
Kansas State Wildcats: 9.1 vs Washington State Cougars: 5.7
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +100 KSU
3.2
7.1
Kansas State Wildcats: 7.1 vs Washington State Cougars: 3.2
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 KSU
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 KSU
85.0
15.0
Contrarian: public 15% home
Matchup
Pass Rush (Sacks) -100 WSU
3.0
0.0
Kansas State Wildcats: 0.0 vs Washington State Cougars: 3.0

Team Stats Comparison

WSU Stat KSU
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
10.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
71.0
4.10
Yards / Play
7.87
142
Pass Yards / Game
247
100
Rush Yards / Game
312
5.7
Yards / Pass Att
9.1
3.2
Yards / Carry
7.1
64.0
Completion %
74.1
0.0
3rd Down %
81.8
59
Plays / Game
71
Defense
24.0
Points Allowed
3.0
6.28
YPP Allowed
2.07
268
Pass Yds Allowed
30
134
Rush Yds Allowed
92
7.7
Opp Yards / Pass Att
1.6
3.0
Sacks / Game
0.0
Ball Security & Kicking
33.3
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
-14.0
Point Diff / Game
+68.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 8103 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
WSU
85%
of tickets
KSU
15%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
WSU
86%
of handle
KSU
14%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
62%
of tickets
Over
38%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

WSU
No report
KSU
No report
73°F 2

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected WSU 9.0 – KSU 51.9

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.