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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

UT Martin Skyhawks

1-1
Final
7 – 52

West Virginia Mountaineers

1-0
Q1 0–21
Q2 0–7
Q3 0–17
Q4 7–7
2026-09-12T17:00:00+00:00 Milan Puskar Stadium
UTM 52%
48% WVU
UTM 25.6 – 24.7 WVU projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
UTM
+28.5 -110
+2010
O 53.75 -110
WVU
-28.5 -110
-6289
U 53.75 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+4.4 Favors West Virginia Mountaineers (WVU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market WVU -28.5 Model WVU +1.0
29.5 pt edge → UTM value
Total (O/U)
Market 53.75 Model 50.3
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 53.8
Moneyline
Model: WVU 48% win Market WVU -6289
50.8% edge · pick UT Martin Skyhawks ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors WVU, − favors UTM.

Power / Efficiency -28.7
UTMWVU
Favors UTM
Situational +38.0
UTMWVU
Favors WVU
Sharp Money -39.1
UTMWVU
Favors UTM
Matchup +75.5
UTMWVU
Favors WVU
How factors were scored · 12 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

UTM Factor value WVU
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -67 UTM
6.49
5.43
West Virginia Mountaineers: 5.43 vs UT Martin Skyhawks: 6.49
Scoring Power (PPG) -28 EVEN
33.0
31.0
West Virginia Mountaineers: 31.0 vs UT Martin Skyhawks: 33.0
Defensive Strength -39 UTM
21.5
24.0
West Virginia Mountaineers allows 24.0 vs UT Martin Skyhawks: 21.5
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +60 WVU
8.2
9.4
West Virginia Mountaineers: 9.4 vs UT Martin Skyhawks: 8.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -54 UTM
5.3
4.6
West Virginia Mountaineers: 4.6 vs UT Martin Skyhawks: 5.3
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 WVU
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -76 UTM
89.0
65.0
Money 65% vs tickets 89% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 UTM
11.0
89.0
Contrarian: public 89% home
Reverse Line Movement -100 UTM
-41.5
-28.5
Spread moved +13.0 from open -41.5 to -28.5
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +88 WVU
40.0%
50.0%
West Virginia Mountaineers: 50.0% vs UT Martin Skyhawks: 40.0%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +47 WVU
0.0
1.0
West Virginia Mountaineers: 1.0 vs UT Martin Skyhawks: 0.0
Special Teams (FG%) +100 WVU
50.0%
100.0%
West Virginia Mountaineers: 100.0% vs UT Martin Skyhawks: 50.0%

Team Stats Comparison

UTM Stat WVU
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
33.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
31.0
6.49
Yards / Play
5.43
204
Pass Yards / Game
132
188
Rush Yards / Game
281
8.2
Yards / Pass Att
9.4
5.3
Yards / Carry
4.6
60.0
Completion %
78.6
40.0
3rd Down %
50.0
60
Plays / Game
76
Defense
21.5
Points Allowed
24.0
4.94
YPP Allowed
6.16
198
Pass Yds Allowed
373
133
Rush Yds Allowed
52
6.6
Opp Yards / Pass Att
10.1
0.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
50.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+11.5
Point Diff / Game
+7.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 2191 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
UTM
11%
of tickets
WVU
89%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
UTM
35%
of handle
WVU
65%
of handle
Money is UTM-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
49%
of tickets
Over
51%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

UTM
No report
WVU
No report
87°F 2

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected UTM 25.6 – WVU 24.7

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.