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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Duke Blue Devils

1-0
13:53 - 4th
28 – 27

Illinois Fighting Illini

1-0
Q1 7–10
Q2 14–14
Q3 7–3
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Gies Memorial Stadium
DUKE 64%
36% ILL
DUKE 14.7 – 9.0 ILL projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
DUKE
+6.0 -110
+205
O 51.5 -110
ILL
-6.0 -110
-250
U 51.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+34.1 Favors Illinois Fighting Illini (ILL) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market ILL -6.0 Model ILL +5.7
11.7 pt edge → DUKE value · pick Duke Blue Devils +6.0
Total (O/U)
Market 51.5 Model 23.7
27.8 pt edge → Under · pick Under 51.5
Moneyline
Model: ILL 36% win Market ILL -250
35.4% edge · pick Illinois Fighting Illini ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors ILL, − favors DUKE.

Power / Efficiency +46.3
DUKEILL
Favors ILL
Situational +38.0
DUKEILL
Favors ILL
Sharp Money 0.0
DUKEILL
Even
Matchup +48.6
DUKEILL
Favors ILL
How factors were scored · 7 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

DUKE Factor value ILL
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 ILL
4.95
7.72
Illinois Fighting Illini: 7.72 vs Duke Blue Devils: 4.95
Scoring Power (PPG) +100 ILL
17.0
42.0
Illinois Fighting Illini: 42.0 vs Duke Blue Devils: 17.0
Defensive Strength -100 DUKE
3.0
23.0
Illinois Fighting Illini allows 23.0 vs Duke Blue Devils: 3.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 ILL
4.7
10.7
Illinois Fighting Illini: 10.7 vs Duke Blue Devils: 4.7
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +54 ILL
5.1
5.8
Illinois Fighting Illini: 5.8 vs Duke Blue Devils: 5.1
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 ILL
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +49 ILL
44.4%
50.0%
Illinois Fighting Illini: 50.0% vs Duke Blue Devils: 44.4%

Team Stats Comparison

DUKE Stat ILL
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
17.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
42.0
4.95
Yards / Play
7.72
131
Pass Yards / Game
182
250
Rush Yards / Game
150
4.7
Yards / Pass Att
10.7
5.1
Yards / Carry
5.8
46.4
Completion %
76.5
44.4
3rd Down %
50.0
77
Plays / Game
43
Defense
3.0
Points Allowed
23.0
4.37
YPP Allowed
5.16
204
Pass Yds Allowed
219
54
Rush Yds Allowed
194
6.8
Opp Yards / Pass Att
7.1
Ball Security & Kicking
50.0
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
+14.0
Point Diff / Game
+19.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
8

Betting Splits 10627 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
DUKE
39%
of tickets
ILL
61%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
DUKE
34%
of handle
ILL
66%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
62%
of tickets
Over
38%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

DUKE
No report
ILL
No report
87°F 3

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected DUKE 14.7 – ILL 9.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.