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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

1-1
Final
3 – 35

North Carolina Tar Heels

1-0
Q1 0–7
Q2 0–14
Q3 0–14
Q4 3–0
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Kenan Stadium
ETSU 23%
77% UNC
ETSU 11.8 – 23.6 UNC projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
ETSU
+20.0 -110
+758
O 51.25 -110
UNC
-20.0 -110
-2058
U 51.25 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

-17.0 Favors East Tennessee State Buccaneers (ETSU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market UNC -20.0 Model UNC -11.8
8.2 pt edge → ETSU value
Total (O/U)
Market 51.25 Model 35.4
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 51.2
Moneyline
Model: UNC 77% win Market UNC -2058
11.5% edge · pick East Tennessee State Buccaneers ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors UNC, − favors ETSU.

Power / Efficiency -51.3
ETSUUNC
Favors ETSU
Situational +72.4
ETSUUNC
Favors UNC
Sharp Money -100.0
ETSUUNC
Favors ETSU
Matchup +13.6
ETSUUNC
Favors UNC
How factors were scored · 11 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

ETSU Factor value UNC
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 ETSU
7.67
5.37
North Carolina Tar Heels: 5.37 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 7.67
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 ETSU
42.5
15.0
North Carolina Tar Heels: 15.0 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 42.5
Defensive Strength +100 UNC
31.5
10.0
North Carolina Tar Heels allows 10.0 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 31.5
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -80 ETSU
9.9
8.3
North Carolina Tar Heels: 8.3 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 9.9
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 ETSU
5.7
3.1
North Carolina Tar Heels: 3.1 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 5.7
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 UNC
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Rest Advantage +100 UNC
7.0
14.0
North Carolina Tar Heels: 14d rest vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 7d
Sharp Money
Reverse Line Movement -100 ETSU
-36.5
-20.0
Spread moved +16.5 from open -36.5 to -20.0
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 ETSU
56.5%
27.3%
North Carolina Tar Heels: 27.3% vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 56.5%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +93 UNC
1.0
3.0
North Carolina Tar Heels: 3.0 vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 1.0
Special Teams (FG%) +97 UNC
50.0%
66.7%
North Carolina Tar Heels: 66.7% vs East Tennessee State Buccaneers: 50.0%

Team Stats Comparison

ETSU Stat UNC
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
42.5
Scoring Power (PPG)
15.0
7.67
Yards / Play
5.37
316
Pass Yards / Game
232
190
Rush Yards / Game
90
9.9
Yards / Pass Att
8.3
5.7
Yards / Carry
3.1
75.0
Completion %
57.1
56.5
3rd Down %
27.3
66
Plays / Game
60
Defense
31.5
Points Allowed
10.0
6.05
YPP Allowed
3.80
226
Pass Yds Allowed
175
192
Rush Yds Allowed
106
7.9
Opp Yards / Pass Att
5.5
1.0
Sacks / Game
3.0
Ball Security & Kicking
50.0
FG %
66.7
Splits & Betting Record
+11.0
Point Diff / Game
+5.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
14

Betting Splits 8390 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
ETSU
48%
of tickets
UNC
52%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
ETSU
48%
of handle
UNC
52%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
87%
of tickets
Over
13%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

ETSU
No report
UNC
No report
78°F 6

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected ETSU 11.8 – UNC 23.6

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.