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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

UC Davis Aggies

2-0
2:00 - 2nd
0 – 28

SMU Mustangs

1-0
1H 0–14
2H 0–14
2026-09-12T20:00:00+00:00 Gerald J. Ford Stadium
UCD 68%
32% SMU
UCD 29.9 – 22.2 SMU projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
UCD
+31.5 -110
+2245
O 58.75 -110
SMU
-31.5 -110
-9901
U 58.75 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+11.6 Favors SMU Mustangs (SMU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market SMU -31.5 Model SMU +7.7
39.2 pt edge → UCD value
Total (O/U)
Market 58.75 Model 52.1
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 58.8
Moneyline
Model: SMU 32% win Market SMU -9901
67.5% edge · pick SMU Mustangs ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors SMU, − favors UCD.

Power / Efficiency -3.0
UCDSMU
Favors UCD
Situational +38.0
UCDSMU
Favors SMU
Sharp Money -6.5
UCDSMU
Favors UCD
Matchup +21.2
UCDSMU
Favors SMU
How factors were scored · 12 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

UCD Factor value SMU
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 SMU
6.85
8.73
SMU Mustangs: 8.73 vs UC Davis Aggies: 6.85
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 UCD
40.0
27.0
SMU Mustangs: 27.0 vs UC Davis Aggies: 40.0
Defensive Strength -54 UCD
20.5
24.0
SMU Mustangs allows 24.0 vs UC Davis Aggies: 20.5
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 SMU
8.2
11.9
SMU Mustangs: 11.9 vs UC Davis Aggies: 8.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -23 EVEN
5.3
5.0
SMU Mustangs: 5.0 vs UC Davis Aggies: 5.3
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 SMU
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -100 UCD
87.0
6.0
Money 6% vs tickets 87% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 UCD
13.0
87.0
Contrarian: public 87% home
Sharp vs Public (Total) +35 EVEN
11.0
22.0
Total money 22% over vs tickets 11%
Reverse Line Movement -28 EVEN
-32.5
-31.5
Spread moved +1.0 from open -32.5 to -31.5
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +80 SMU
48.0%
57.1%
SMU Mustangs: 57.1% vs UC Davis Aggies: 48.0%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -47 UCD
1.0
0.0
SMU Mustangs: 0.0 vs UC Davis Aggies: 1.0

Team Stats Comparison

UCD Stat SMU
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
40.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
27.0
6.85
Yards / Play
8.73
296
Pass Yards / Game
430
159
Rush Yards / Game
155
8.2
Yards / Pass Att
11.9
5.3
Yards / Carry
5.0
63.9
Completion %
72.2
48.0
3rd Down %
57.1
66
Plays / Game
67
Defense
20.5
Points Allowed
24.0
4.79
YPP Allowed
4.56
225
Pass Yds Allowed
125
118
Rush Yds Allowed
199
6.6
Opp Yards / Pass Att
5.4
1.0
Sacks / Game
0.0
Ball Security & Kicking
0.0
FG %
66.7
Splits & Betting Record
+19.5
Point Diff / Game
+3.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
5

Betting Splits 2675 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
UCD
13%
of tickets
SMU
87%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
UCD
94%
of handle
SMU
6%
of handle
Money is UCD-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
89%
of tickets
Over
11%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

UCD
No report
SMU
No report
100°F Mostly sunny

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected UCD 29.9 – SMU 22.2

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.