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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Eastern Michigan Eagles

1-1
11:20 - 4th
7 – 21

Michigan State Spartans

1-0
Q1 0–7
Q2 7–7
Q3 0–7
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Spartan Stadium
EMU 31%
69% MSU
EMU 16.6 – 24.7 MSU projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
EMU
+17.5 -110
+600
O 49.5 -110
MSU
-17.5 -110
-900
U 49.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+32.6 Favors Michigan State Spartans (MSU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market MSU -17.5 Model MSU -8.1
9.4 pt edge → EMU value
Total (O/U)
Market 49.5 Model 41.3
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 49.5
Moneyline
Model: MSU 69% win Market MSU -900
20.7% edge · pick Michigan State Spartans ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors MSU, − favors EMU.

Power / Efficiency +37.8
EMUMSU
Favors MSU
Situational +38.0
EMUMSU
Favors MSU
Sharp Money 0.0
EMUMSU
Even
Matchup +56.9
EMUMSU
Favors MSU
How factors were scored · 8 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

EMU Factor value MSU
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +4 EVEN
4.56
4.62
Michigan State Spartans: 4.62 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles: 4.56
Scoring Power (PPG) +77 MSU
24.5
30.0
Michigan State Spartans: 30.0 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles: 24.5
Defensive Strength +31 EVEN
22.0
20.0
Michigan State Spartans allows 20.0 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles: 22.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +85 MSU
5.6
7.3
Michigan State Spartans: 7.3 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles: 5.6
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -8 EVEN
3.2
3.1
Michigan State Spartans: 3.1 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles: 3.2
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 MSU
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +66 MSU
25.8%
33.3%
Michigan State Spartans: 33.3% vs Eastern Michigan Eagles: 25.8%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +47 MSU
2.0
3.0
Michigan State Spartans: 3.0 vs Eastern Michigan Eagles: 2.0

Team Stats Comparison

EMU Stat MSU
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
24.5
Scoring Power (PPG)
30.0
4.56
Yards / Play
4.62
226
Pass Yards / Game
247
88
Rush Yards / Game
150
5.6
Yards / Pass Att
7.3
3.2
Yards / Carry
3.1
63.0
Completion %
76.5
25.8
3rd Down %
33.3
69
Plays / Game
86
Defense
22.0
Points Allowed
20.0
5.06
YPP Allowed
6.35
269
Pass Yds Allowed
196
93
Rush Yds Allowed
77
6.2
Opp Yards / Pass Att
9.3
2.0
Sacks / Game
3.0
Ball Security & Kicking
0.0
FG %
83.3
Splits & Betting Record
+2.5
Point Diff / Game
+10.0
Situational (game-day)
8
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 3922 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
EMU
39%
of tickets
MSU
61%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
EMU
39%
of handle
MSU
61%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
63%
of tickets
Over
37%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

EMU
No report
MSU
No report
83°F 6

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected EMU 16.6 – MSU 24.7

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.