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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Utah State Aggies

0-1
9:07 - 4th
7 – 10

Washington Huskies

1-0
Q1 0–0
Q2 7–10
Q3 0–0
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Husky Stadium
USU 12%
88% WASH
USU 9.0 – 28.0 WASH projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
USU
+28.5 -110
+2000
O 55.5 -110
WASH
-28.5 -110
-6500
U 55.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+48.6 Favors Washington Huskies (WASH) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market WASH -28.5 Model WASH -19.0
9.5 pt edge → USU value
Total (O/U)
Market 55.5 Model 37.0
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 55.5
Moneyline
Model: WASH 88% win Market WASH -6500
10.5% edge · pick Washington Huskies ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors WASH, − favors USU.

Power / Efficiency +94.1
USUWASH
Favors WASH
Situational +38.0
USUWASH
Favors WASH
Sharp Money +100.0
USUWASH
Favors WASH
Matchup -100.0
USUWASH
Favors USU
How factors were scored · 9 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

USU Factor value WASH
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 WASH
4.47
6.28
Washington Huskies: 6.28 vs Utah State Aggies: 4.47
Scoring Power (PPG) +98 WASH
17.0
24.0
Washington Huskies: 24.0 vs Utah State Aggies: 17.0
Defensive Strength +100 WASH
29.0
10.0
Washington Huskies allows 10.0 vs Utah State Aggies: 29.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 WASH
5.6
7.7
Washington Huskies: 7.7 vs Utah State Aggies: 5.6
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +70 WASH
3.7
4.6
Washington Huskies: 4.6 vs Utah State Aggies: 3.7
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 WASH
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 WASH
85.0
15.0
Contrarian: public 15% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 USU
60.0%
33.3%
Washington Huskies: 33.3% vs Utah State Aggies: 60.0%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -100 USU
3.0
0.0
Washington Huskies: 0.0 vs Utah State Aggies: 3.0

Team Stats Comparison

USU Stat WASH
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
17.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
24.0
4.47
Yards / Play
6.28
245
Pass Yards / Game
268
162
Rush Yards / Game
134
5.6
Yards / Pass Att
7.7
3.7
Yards / Carry
4.6
45.5
Completion %
68.6
60.0
3rd Down %
33.3
91
Plays / Game
64
Defense
29.0
Points Allowed
10.0
3.71
YPP Allowed
4.10
152
Pass Yds Allowed
142
89
Rush Yds Allowed
100
4.6
Opp Yards / Pass Att
5.7
3.0
Sacks / Game
0.0
Ball Security & Kicking
50.0
FG %
50.0
Splits & Betting Record
-12.0
Point Diff / Game
+14.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
6

Betting Splits 8103 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
USU
85%
of tickets
WASH
15%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
USU
86%
of handle
WASH
14%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
62%
of tickets
Over
38%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

USU
No report
WASH
No report
64°F 7

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected USU 9.0 – WASH 28.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.