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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

UTSA Roadrunners

1-0
0:02 - 2nd
7 – 14

Texas State Bobcats

0-1
1H 7–0
2H 0–14
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 UFCU Stadium
UTSA 88%
12% TXST
UTSA 52.0 – 9.0 TXST projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
UTSA
+1.5 -110
+102
O 65.5 -110
TXST
-1.5 -110
-122
U 65.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

-17.7 Favors UTSA Roadrunners (UTSA) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market TXST -1.5 Model TXST +43.0
44.5 pt edge → UTSA value · pick UTSA Roadrunners +1.5
Total (O/U)
Market 65.5 Model 61.0
4.5 pt edge → Under · pick Under 65.5
Moneyline
Model: TXST 12% win Market TXST -122
38.5% edge · pick UTSA Roadrunners ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors TXST, − favors UTSA.

Power / Efficiency -100.0
UTSATXST
Favors UTSA
Situational +38.0
UTSATXST
Favors TXST
Sharp Money -44.5
UTSATXST
Favors UTSA
Matchup +96.9
UTSATXST
Favors TXST
How factors were scored · 9 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

UTSA Factor value TXST
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 UTSA
9.09
4.85
Texas State Bobcats: 4.85 vs UTSA Roadrunners: 9.09
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 UTSA
45.0
7.0
Texas State Bobcats: 7.0 vs UTSA Roadrunners: 45.0
Defensive Strength -100 UTSA
16.0
59.0
Texas State Bobcats allows 59.0 vs UTSA Roadrunners: 16.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 UTSA
9.5
6.5
Texas State Bobcats: 6.5 vs UTSA Roadrunners: 9.5
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 UTSA
8.7
3.9
Texas State Bobcats: 3.9 vs UTSA Roadrunners: 8.7
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 TXST
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -44 UTSA
45.0
31.0
Money 31% vs tickets 45% on home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +100 TXST
33.3%
57.1%
Texas State Bobcats: 57.1% vs UTSA Roadrunners: 33.3%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +93 TXST
0.0
2.0
Texas State Bobcats: 2.0 vs UTSA Roadrunners: 0.0

Team Stats Comparison

UTSA Stat TXST
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
45.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
7.0
9.09
Yards / Play
4.85
275
Pass Yards / Game
188
252
Rush Yards / Game
161
9.5
Yards / Pass Att
6.5
8.7
Yards / Carry
3.9
75.9
Completion %
69.0
33.3
3rd Down %
57.1
58
Plays / Game
72
Defense
16.0
Points Allowed
59.0
5.15
YPP Allowed
7.27
245
Pass Yds Allowed
360
177
Rush Yds Allowed
156
5.2
Opp Yards / Pass Att
10.6
0.0
Sacks / Game
2.0
Ball Security & Kicking
50.0
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
+29.0
Point Diff / Game
-52.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 7467 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
UTSA
55%
of tickets
TXST
45%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
UTSA
69%
of handle
TXST
31%
of handle
Money is UTSA-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
87%
of tickets
Over
13%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

UTSA
No report
TXST
No report
96°F 1

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected UTSA 52.0 – TXST 9.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.