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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

UL Monroe Warhawks

0-1
2:00 - 4th
20 – 13

UAB Blazers

0-1
Q1 7–0
Q2 10–10
Q3 3–3
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Protective Stadium
ULM 12%
88% UAB
ULM 23.7 – 52.0 UAB projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
ULM
+9.5 -110
+295
O 53.5 -110
UAB
-9.5 -110
-375
U 53.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+46.7 Favors UAB Blazers (UAB) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market UAB -9.5 Model UAB -28.3
18.8 pt edge → UAB covers · pick UAB Blazers -9.5
Total (O/U)
Market 53.5 Model 75.7
22.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 53.5
Moneyline
Model: UAB 88% win Market UAB -375
9.1% edge · pick UAB Blazers ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors UAB, − favors ULM.

Power / Efficiency +84.0
ULMUAB
Favors UAB
Situational +38.0
ULMUAB
Favors UAB
Sharp Money 0.0
ULMUAB
Even
Matchup +47.0
ULMUAB
Favors UAB
How factors were scored · 9 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

ULM Factor value UAB
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +76 UAB
3.97
5.16
UAB Blazers: 5.16 vs UL Monroe Warhawks: 3.97
Scoring Power (PPG) +100 UAB
13.0
23.0
UAB Blazers: 23.0 vs UL Monroe Warhawks: 13.0
Defensive Strength +100 UAB
62.0
42.0
UAB Blazers allows 42.0 vs UL Monroe Warhawks: 62.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 UAB
5.0
7.1
UAB Blazers: 7.1 vs UL Monroe Warhawks: 5.0
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +39 UAB
3.5
4.0
UAB Blazers: 4.0 vs UL Monroe Warhawks: 3.5
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 UAB
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +100 UAB
18.8%
52.6%
UAB Blazers: 52.6% vs UL Monroe Warhawks: 18.8%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -47 ULM
2.0
1.0
UAB Blazers: 1.0 vs UL Monroe Warhawks: 2.0
Special Teams (FG%) +100 UAB
66.7%
100.0%
UAB Blazers: 100.0% vs UL Monroe Warhawks: 66.7%

Team Stats Comparison

ULM Stat UAB
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
13.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
23.0
3.97
Yards / Play
5.16
140
Pass Yards / Game
219
138
Rush Yards / Game
194
5.0
Yards / Pass Att
7.1
3.5
Yards / Carry
4.0
57.1
Completion %
58.1
18.8
3rd Down %
52.6
70
Plays / Game
80
Defense
62.0
Points Allowed
42.0
9.65
YPP Allowed
7.72
417
Pass Yds Allowed
182
345
Rush Yds Allowed
150
9.9
Opp Yards / Pass Att
10.7
2.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
66.7
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
-49.0
Point Diff / Game
-19.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
8

Betting Splits 2923 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
ULM
45%
of tickets
UAB
55%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
ULM
38%
of handle
UAB
62%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
87%
of tickets
Over
13%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

ULM
No report
UAB
No report
90°F 2

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected ULM 23.7 – UAB 52.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.