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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Northern Colorado Bears

0-2
0:25 - 2nd
10 – 7

Wyoming Cowboys

0-1
1H 0–0
2H 10–7
2026-09-12T20:00:00+00:00 War Memorial Stadium
UNCO 72%
28% WYO
UNCO 31.3 – 22.2 WYO projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
UNCO
+22.5 -110
+1040
O 44.25 -110
WYO
-22.5 -110
-2024
U 44.25 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

-1.3 Near even — no strong side lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market WYO -22.5 Model WYO +9.1
31.6 pt edge → UNCO value
Total (O/U)
Market 44.25 Model 53.6
3.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 44.2
Moneyline
Model: WYO 28% win Market WYO -2024
0.0% edge

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors WYO, − favors UNCO.

Power / Efficiency -39.4
UNCOWYO
Favors UNCO
Situational +38.0
UNCOWYO
Favors WYO
Sharp Money +23.9
UNCOWYO
Favors WYO
Matchup -23.8
UNCOWYO
Favors UNCO
How factors were scored · 10 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

UNCO Factor value WYO
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -34 UNCO
5.49
4.96
Wyoming Cowboys: 4.96 vs Northern Colorado Bears: 5.49
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 UNCO
26.0
13.0
Wyoming Cowboys: 13.0 vs Northern Colorado Bears: 26.0
Defensive Strength -16 EVEN
34.0
35.0
Wyoming Cowboys allows 35.0 vs Northern Colorado Bears: 34.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -5 EVEN
6.9
6.8
Wyoming Cowboys: 6.8 vs Northern Colorado Bears: 6.9
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -31 UNCO
4.6
4.2
Wyoming Cowboys: 4.2 vs Northern Colorado Bears: 4.6
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 WYO
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 UNCO
8.0
92.0
Contrarian: public 92% home
Reverse Line Movement -28 EVEN
-23.5
-22.5
Spread moved +1.0 from open -23.5 to -22.5
Matchup
Pass Rush (Sacks) -100 UNCO
6.0
2.0
Wyoming Cowboys: 2.0 vs Northern Colorado Bears: 6.0
Special Teams (FG%) +100 WYO
66.7%
100.0%
Wyoming Cowboys: 100.0% vs Northern Colorado Bears: 66.7%

Team Stats Comparison

UNCO Stat WYO
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
26.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
13.0
5.49
Yards / Play
4.96
246
Pass Yards / Game
130
185
Rush Yards / Game
143
6.9
Yards / Pass Att
6.8
4.6
Yards / Carry
4.2
62.0
Completion %
63.2
53.1
3rd Down %
0.0
78
Plays / Game
55
Defense
34.0
Points Allowed
35.0
6.63
YPP Allowed
5.91
206
Pass Yds Allowed
242
176
Rush Yds Allowed
154
8.2
Opp Yards / Pass Att
7.1
6.0
Sacks / Game
2.0
Ball Security & Kicking
66.7
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
-8.0
Point Diff / Game
-22.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 747 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
UNCO
8%
of tickets
WYO
92%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
UNCO
8%
of handle
WYO
92%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
66%
of tickets
Over
34%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

UNCO
No report
WYO
No report
78°F Partly sunny

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected UNCO 31.3 – WYO 22.2

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.