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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

New Mexico State Aggies

1-1
@

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

0-2
2026-09-13T03:59:00+00:00 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
NMSU 81%
19% HAW
NMSU 32.1 – 18.3 HAW projected

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Spread
ML
O/U
NMSU
+7.0 -110
+259
O 50.0 -110
HAW
-7.0 -110
-283
U 50.0 -110

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Model Analysis 🔒

-7.0 Favors New Mexico State Aggies (NMSU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market HAW -7.0 Model HAW +13.9
20.9 pt edge → NMSU value · pick New Mexico State Aggies +7.0
Total (O/U)
Market 50.0 Model 50.4
0.4 pt edge → Over
Moneyline
Model: HAW 19% win Market HAW -283
52.8% edge · pick New Mexico State Aggies ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors HAW, − favors NMSU.

Power / Efficiency -94.9
NMSUHAW
Favors NMSU
Situational +38.0
NMSUHAW
Favors HAW
Sharp Money +54.8
NMSUHAW
Favors HAW
Matchup +16.0
NMSUHAW
Favors HAW
How factors were scored · 11 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

NMSU Factor value HAW
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 NMSU
6.47
3.92
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 3.92 vs New Mexico State Aggies: 6.47
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 NMSU
34.0
16.5
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 16.5 vs New Mexico State Aggies: 34.0
Defensive Strength -78 NMSU
24.0
29.0
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors allows 29.0 vs New Mexico State Aggies: 24.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 NMSU
8.9
4.7
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 4.7 vs New Mexico State Aggies: 8.9
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 NMSU
4.4
3.0
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 3.0 vs New Mexico State Aggies: 4.4
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 HAW
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +67 HAW
50.0
71.0
Money 71% vs tickets 50% on home
Sharp vs Public (Total) +41 EVEN
49.0
62.0
Total money 62% over vs tickets 49%
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 NMSU
56.7%
44.7%
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 44.7% vs New Mexico State Aggies: 56.7%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +100 HAW
4.0
7.0
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 7.0 vs New Mexico State Aggies: 4.0
Special Teams (FG%) +97 HAW
50.0%
66.7%
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: 66.7% vs New Mexico State Aggies: 50.0%

Team Stats Comparison

NMSU Stat HAW
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
34.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
16.5
6.47
Yards / Play
3.92
295
Pass Yards / Game
228
142
Rush Yards / Game
82
8.9
Yards / Pass Att
4.7
4.4
Yards / Carry
3.0
60.6
Completion %
51.0
56.7
3rd Down %
44.7
68
Plays / Game
79
Defense
24.0
Points Allowed
29.0
5.17
YPP Allowed
6.16
184
Pass Yds Allowed
213
144
Rush Yds Allowed
203
6.4
Opp Yards / Pass Att
8.2
4.0
Sacks / Game
7.0
Ball Security & Kicking
50.0
FG %
66.7
Splits & Betting Record
+10.0
Point Diff / Game
-12.5
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
6

Betting Splits 7219 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
NMSU
50%
of tickets
HAW
50%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
NMSU
29%
of handle
HAW
71%
of handle
Money is HAW-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
51%
of tickets
Over
49%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

NMSU
No report
HAW
No report
84°F Mostly sunny

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected NMSU 32.1 – HAW 18.3

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.