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New Mexico Lobos: 38.0 vs Mercyhurst Lakers: 18.4
New Mexico Lobos allows 7.0 vs Mercyhurst Lakers: 24.8
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Total adj -1.0 (rain)
Money 70% vs tickets 92% on home
Contrarian: public 92% home
Total money 42% over vs tickets 28%
Spread moved +1.0 from open -42.5 to -41.5
New Mexico Lobos: 53.8% vs Mercyhurst Lakers: 38.9%
New Mexico Lobos: 2.0 vs Mercyhurst Lakers: 0.8
New Mexico Lobos: 75.0% vs Mercyhurst Lakers: 85.7%
Mercyhurst Lakers
0-2
5:00 - 2nd
7
–
42
New Mexico Lobos
1-0
1H
7–7
2H
0–35
MERC 12%
88% UNM
MERC
9.0
–
31.9
UNM
projected
Tap a cell to add to your slip
Spread
ML
O/U
MERC
+41.5
-110
–
O
54.0
-110
UNM
-41.5
-110
–
U
54.0
-110
Model Analysis 🔒
Model vs Market
Spread (side)
Market UNM -41.5
Model UNM -22.9
18.6 pt edge →
MERC value
Total (O/U)
Market 54.0
Model 40.9
3.2 pt edge →
Under
· pick Under 54.0
Category leans
Same sign as Overall: + favors UNM, − favors MERC.
Power / Efficiency
+100.0
MERCUNM
Favors UNM
Situational
+15.2
MERCUNM
Favors UNM
Sharp Money
+3.8
MERCUNM
Favors UNM
Matchup
+48.8
MERCUNM
Favors UNM
How factors were scored · 11 inputs
Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.
MERC
Factor value
UNM
Power / Efficiency
Scoring Power (PPG)
+100
UNM
18.4
38.0
Defensive Strength
+100
UNM
24.8
7.0
Situational
Home Field Advantage
+38
UNM
0.0
3.5
Weather Impact
0
EVEN
-1.0
-1.0
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread)
-70
MERC
92.0
70.0
Sharp vs Public (Spread)
+100
MERC
8.0
92.0
Sharp vs Public (Total)
+44
EVEN
28.0
42.0
Reverse Line Movement
-28
EVEN
-42.5
-41.5
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency
+100
UNM
38.9%
53.8%
Pass Rush (Sacks)
+58
UNM
0.8
2.0
Special Teams (FG%)
-62
MERC
85.7%
75.0%
Team Stats Comparison
MERC
Stat
UNM
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
18.4
Scoring Power (PPG)
38.0
0.00
Yards / Play
5.13
0
Pass Yards / Game
159
0
Rush Yards / Game
205
0.0
Yards / Pass Att
6.4
0.0
Yards / Carry
4.7
0.0
Completion %
68.0
38.9
3rd Down %
53.8
0
Plays / Game
71
Defense
24.8
Points Allowed
7.0
0.00
YPP Allowed
2.92
0
Pass Yds Allowed
30
0
Rush Yds Allowed
119
0.0
Opp Yards / Pass Att
1.9
0.8
Sacks / Game
2.0
Ball Security & Kicking
85.7
FG %
75.0
Splits & Betting Record
-6.3
Point Diff / Game
+31.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
6
Betting Splits 822 bets tracked
Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.
Spread · % of tickets
MERC
8%
of tickets
UNM
92%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
MERC
30%
of handle
UNM
70%
of handle
Money is MERC-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
72%
of tickets
Over
28%
of tickets
Availability & Conditions
MERC
No report
UNM
No report
88°F
Partly sunny w/ t-storms
PMill Verdict
No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.
Projected MERC 9.0 – UNM 31.9
Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.