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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Colgate Raiders

2-0
Final
10 – 13

Central Michigan Chippewas

0-1
Q1 0–0
Q2 10–0
Q3 0–6
Q4 0–7
2026-09-12T17:00:00+00:00 Kelly/Shorts Stadium
COLG 88%
12% CMU
COLG 37.5 – 9.0 CMU projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
COLG
+18.5 -110
+900
O 48.5 -110
CMU
-18.5 -110
-1600
U 48.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

-17.4 Favors Colgate Raiders (COLG) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market CMU -18.5 Model CMU +28.5
47.0 pt edge → COLG value
Total (O/U)
Market 48.5 Model 46.5
2.0 pt edge → Under · pick Under 48.5
Moneyline
Model: CMU 12% win Market CMU -1600
78.0% edge · pick Colgate Raiders ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors CMU, − favors COLG.

Power / Efficiency -100.0
COLGCMU
Favors COLG
Situational +38.0
COLGCMU
Favors CMU
Sharp Money +100.0
COLGCMU
Favors CMU
Matchup -100.0
COLGCMU
Favors COLG
How factors were scored · 8 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

COLG Factor value CMU
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 COLG
6.49
2.92
Central Michigan Chippewas: 2.92 vs Colgate Raiders: 6.49
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 COLG
29.5
7.0
Central Michigan Chippewas: 7.0 vs Colgate Raiders: 29.5
Defensive Strength -100 COLG
12.0
38.0
Central Michigan Chippewas allows 38.0 vs Colgate Raiders: 12.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 COLG
8.8
1.9
Central Michigan Chippewas: 1.9 vs Colgate Raiders: 8.8
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 COLG
5.3
3.7
Central Michigan Chippewas: 3.7 vs Colgate Raiders: 5.3
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 CMU
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 COLG
12.0
88.0
Contrarian: public 88% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 COLG
52.0%
18.2%
Central Michigan Chippewas: 18.2% vs Colgate Raiders: 52.0%

Team Stats Comparison

COLG Stat CMU
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
29.5
Scoring Power (PPG)
7.0
6.49
Yards / Play
2.92
224
Pass Yards / Game
30
214
Rush Yards / Game
119
8.8
Yards / Pass Att
1.9
5.3
Yards / Carry
3.7
64.7
Completion %
43.8
52.0
3rd Down %
18.2
68
Plays / Game
51
Defense
12.0
Points Allowed
38.0
4.36
YPP Allowed
5.13
190
Pass Yds Allowed
159
70
Rush Yds Allowed
205
6.1
Opp Yards / Pass Att
6.4
3.0
Sacks / Game
3.0
Ball Security & Kicking
50.0
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
+17.5
Point Diff / Game
-31.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
6

Betting Splits 1514 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
COLG
12%
of tickets
CMU
88%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
COLG
9%
of handle
CMU
91%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
36%
of tickets
Over
64%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

COLG
No report
CMU
No report
84°F 6

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected COLG 37.5 – CMU 9.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.