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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Central Connecticut Blue Devils

0-1
13:35 - 4th
3 – 49

Toledo Rockets

0-1
Q1 3–14
Q2 0–21
Q3 0–14
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Glass Bowl
CCSU 12%
88% TOL
CCSU 22.5 – 47.1 TOL projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
CCSU
+36.5 -110
+3500
O 52.5 -110
TOL
-36.5 -110
-20000
U 52.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+0.1 Near even — no strong side lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market TOL -36.5 Model TOL -24.6
11.9 pt edge → CCSU value
Total (O/U)
Market 52.5 Model 69.6
3.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 52.5
Moneyline
Model: TOL 88% win Market TOL -20000
0.0% edge

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors TOL, − favors CCSU.

Power / Efficiency +56.3
CCSUTOL
Favors TOL
Situational -38.7
CCSUTOL
Favors CCSU
Sharp Money -14.3
CCSUTOL
Favors CCSU
Matchup -31.9
CCSUTOL
Favors CCSU
How factors were scored · 11 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

CCSU Factor value TOL
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 TOL
3.85
6.35
Toledo Rockets: 6.35 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils: 3.85
Scoring Power (PPG) 0 EVEN
20.0
20.0
Toledo Rockets: 20.0 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils: 20.0
Defensive Strength +100 TOL
59.0
30.0
Toledo Rockets allows 30.0 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils: 59.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 TOL
3.7
9.3
Toledo Rockets: 9.3 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils: 3.7
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -16 EVEN
4.1
3.9
Toledo Rockets: 3.9 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils: 4.1
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 TOL
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Rest Advantage -100 CCSU
14.0
7.0
Toledo Rockets: 7d rest vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils: 14d
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -100 CCSU
92.0
33.0
Money 33% vs tickets 92% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 CCSU
8.0
92.0
Contrarian: public 92% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 CCSU
28.6%
12.5%
Toledo Rockets: 12.5% vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils: 28.6%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +47 TOL
1.0
2.0
Toledo Rockets: 2.0 vs Central Connecticut Blue Devils: 1.0

Team Stats Comparison

CCSU Stat TOL
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
20.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
20.0
3.85
Yards / Play
6.35
115
Pass Yards / Game
196
135
Rush Yards / Game
77
3.7
Yards / Pass Att
9.3
4.1
Yards / Carry
3.9
51.6
Completion %
57.1
28.6
3rd Down %
12.5
65
Plays / Game
43
Defense
59.0
Points Allowed
30.0
10.42
YPP Allowed
4.62
327
Pass Yds Allowed
247
267
Rush Yds Allowed
150
13.6
Opp Yards / Pass Att
7.3
1.0
Sacks / Game
2.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
-39.0
Point Diff / Game
-10.0
Situational (game-day)
14
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 944 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
CCSU
8%
of tickets
TOL
92%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
CCSU
67%
of handle
TOL
33%
of handle
Money is CCSU-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
79%
of tickets
Over
21%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

CCSU
No report
TOL
No report
79°F 6

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected CCSU 22.5 – TOL 47.1

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.