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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Wagner Seahawks

1-1
Final
3 – 87

James Madison Dukes

1-0
Q1 3–21
Q2 0–21
Q3 0–24
Q4 0–21
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Bridgeforth Stadium
WAG 34%
66% JMU
WAG 9.0 – 15.5 JMU projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
WAG
+46.5 -110
–
O 56.5 -110
JMU
-46.5 -110
–
U 56.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+35.1 Favors James Madison Dukes (JMU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market JMU -46.5 Model JMU -6.5
40.0 pt edge → WAG value
Total (O/U)
Market 56.5 Model 24.5
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 56.5

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors JMU, − favors WAG.

Power / Efficiency +67.9
WAGJMU
Favors JMU
Situational +38.0
WAGJMU
Favors JMU
Sharp Money +1.0
WAGJMU
Even
Matchup +7.1
WAGJMU
Favors JMU
How factors were scored · 10 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

WAG Factor value JMU
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 JMU
3.61
5.94
James Madison Dukes: 5.94 vs Wagner Seahawks: 3.61
Scoring Power (PPG) +14 EVEN
19.0
20.0
James Madison Dukes: 20.0 vs Wagner Seahawks: 19.0
Defensive Strength +70 JMU
17.5
13.0
James Madison Dukes allows 13.0 vs Wagner Seahawks: 17.5
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +65 JMU
5.3
6.6
James Madison Dukes: 6.6 vs Wagner Seahawks: 5.3
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +100 JMU
2.4
5.6
James Madison Dukes: 5.6 vs Wagner Seahawks: 2.4
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 JMU
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -73 WAG
91.0
68.0
Money 68% vs tickets 91% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 WAG
9.0
91.0
Contrarian: public 91% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +100 JMU
21.9%
40.0%
James Madison Dukes: 40.0% vs Wagner Seahawks: 21.9%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -100 WAG
8.0
0.0
James Madison Dukes: 0.0 vs Wagner Seahawks: 8.0

Team Stats Comparison

WAG Stat JMU
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
19.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
20.0
3.61
Yards / Play
5.94
171
Pass Yards / Game
118
86
Rush Yards / Game
173
5.3
Yards / Pass Att
6.6
2.4
Yards / Carry
5.6
57.8
Completion %
66.7
21.9
3rd Down %
40.0
71
Plays / Game
49
Defense
17.5
Points Allowed
13.0
3.65
YPP Allowed
4.86
162
Pass Yds Allowed
230
54
Rush Yds Allowed
91
6.1
Opp Yards / Pass Att
8.5
8.0
Sacks / Game
0.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+1.5
Point Diff / Game
+7.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 1045 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
WAG
9%
of tickets
JMU
91%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
WAG
32%
of handle
JMU
68%
of handle
Money is WAG-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
57%
of tickets
Over
43%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

WAG
No report
JMU
No report
76°F 7

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected WAG 9.0 – JMU 15.5

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.