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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

0-3
Final
23 – 24

Liberty Flames

1-1
Q1 6–14
Q2 14–3
Q3 3–0
Q4 0–7
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Williams Stadium (VA)
GWEB 36%
64% LIB
GWEB 11.8 – 17.5 LIB projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
GWEB
+28.5 -110
+1400
O 55.5 -110
LIB
-28.5 -110
-3200
U 55.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+27.3 Favors Liberty Flames (LIB) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market LIB -28.5 Model LIB -5.7
22.8 pt edge → GWEB value
Total (O/U)
Market 55.5 Model 29.4
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 55.5
Moneyline
Model: LIB 64% win Market LIB -3200
33.1% edge · pick Liberty Flames ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors LIB, − favors GWEB.

Power / Efficiency +33.9
GWEBLIB
Favors LIB
Situational +38.0
GWEBLIB
Favors LIB
Sharp Money +3.9
GWEBLIB
Favors LIB
Matchup +26.5
GWEBLIB
Favors LIB
How factors were scored · 11 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

GWEB Factor value LIB
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -14 EVEN
5.08
4.86
Liberty Flames: 4.86 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: 5.08
Scoring Power (PPG) -28 EVEN
15.0
13.0
Liberty Flames: 13.0 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: 15.0
Defensive Strength +93 LIB
26.0
20.0
Liberty Flames allows 20.0 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: 26.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +90 LIB
6.7
8.5
Liberty Flames: 8.5 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: 6.7
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +39 LIB
1.9
2.4
Liberty Flames: 2.4 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: 1.9
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 LIB
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -51 GWEB
72.0
56.0
Money 56% vs tickets 72% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +77 GWEB
28.0
72.0
Contrarian: public 72% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +91 LIB
33.3%
43.8%
Liberty Flames: 43.8% vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: 33.3%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -93 GWEB
3.0
1.0
Liberty Flames: 1.0 vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: 3.0
Special Teams (FG%) +100 LIB
75.0%
100.0%
Liberty Flames: 100.0% vs Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs: 75.0%

Team Stats Comparison

GWEB Stat LIB
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
15.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
13.0
5.08
Yards / Play
4.86
345
Pass Yards / Game
230
46
Rush Yards / Game
91
6.7
Yards / Pass Att
8.5
1.9
Yards / Carry
2.4
56.3
Completion %
63.0
33.3
3rd Down %
43.8
77
Plays / Game
66
Defense
26.0
Points Allowed
20.0
5.44
YPP Allowed
5.94
214
Pass Yds Allowed
118
132
Rush Yds Allowed
173
10.0
Opp Yards / Pass Att
6.6
3.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
75.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
-11.0
Point Diff / Game
-7.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 1171 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
GWEB
28%
of tickets
LIB
72%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
GWEB
44%
of handle
LIB
56%
of handle
Money is GWEB-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
65%
of tickets
Over
35%
of tickets

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected GWEB 11.8 – LIB 17.5

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.