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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Lindenwood Lions

1-1
@

Missouri State Bears

0-1
2026-09-12T23:00:00+00:00 Robert W. Plaster Stadium
LIN 86%
14% MOST
LIN 44.4 – 26.8 MOST projected

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Spread
ML
O/U
LIN
+16.0 -110
+570
O 53.0 -110
MOST
-16.0 -110
-850
U 53.0 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

-28.7 Favors Lindenwood Lions (LIN) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market MOST -16.0 Model MOST +17.5
33.5 pt edge → LIN value
Total (O/U)
Market 53.0 Model 71.2
3.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 53.0
Moneyline
Model: MOST 14% win Market MOST -850
71.4% edge · pick Lindenwood Lions ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors MOST, − favors LIN.

Power / Efficiency -100.0
LINMOST
Favors LIN
Situational -2.6
LINMOST
Favors LIN
Sharp Money +100.0
LINMOST
Favors MOST
Matchup -100.0
LINMOST
Favors LIN
How factors were scored · 9 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

LIN Factor value MOST
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 LIN
4.90
1.63
Missouri State Bears: 1.63 vs Lindenwood Lions: 4.90
Defensive Strength -100 LIN
26.5
50.0
Missouri State Bears allows 50.0 vs Lindenwood Lions: 26.5
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 LIN
7.2
1.8
Missouri State Bears: 1.8 vs Lindenwood Lions: 7.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 LIN
3.9
1.6
Missouri State Bears: 1.6 vs Lindenwood Lions: 3.9
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 MOST
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Rest Advantage -35 EVEN
9.0
7.0
Missouri State Bears: 7d rest vs Lindenwood Lions: 9d
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 LIN
6.0
94.0
Contrarian: public 94% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 LIN
46.9%
10.0%
Missouri State Bears: 10.0% vs Lindenwood Lions: 46.9%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -100 LIN
6.0
1.0
Missouri State Bears: 1.0 vs Lindenwood Lions: 6.0

Team Stats Comparison

LIN Stat MOST
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
26.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
0.0
4.90
Yards / Play
1.63
176
Pass Yards / Game
30
162
Rush Yards / Game
37
7.2
Yards / Pass Att
1.8
3.9
Yards / Carry
1.6
67.3
Completion %
47.1
46.9
3rd Down %
10.0
69
Plays / Game
41
Defense
26.5
Points Allowed
50.0
5.39
YPP Allowed
5.80
253
Pass Yds Allowed
269
106
Rush Yds Allowed
236
7.6
Opp Yards / Pass Att
7.1
6.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
83.3
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
-0.5
Point Diff / Game
+0.0
Situational (game-day)
9
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 666 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
LIN
6%
of tickets
MOST
94%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
LIN
9%
of handle
MOST
91%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
94%
of tickets
Over
6%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

LIN
No report
MOST
No report
91°F Intermittent clouds

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected LIN 44.4 – MOST 26.8

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.