NFL picks
NFL · Wk 5 AT&T Stadium 🏟 Indoors — weather neutral
Away

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-4
Final
24 – 16
Pregame proj 20.1–30.9
Home

Dallas Cowboys

2-2

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ DAL spread opened -10, now -8.5
  • ↕ Total opened 47.5, now 48
Moneyline 3.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TB +386 open +395 20.0% —
DAL -473 open -509 80.0% —
Spread 2.4% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TB +8.5 -102 open +10 49.3% —
DAL -8.5 -108 open -10 50.7% —
Total 2.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o48 -114 open o47.5 51.8% —
Under u48 +102 open u47.5 48.2% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Spread
ML
O/U
TB
+8.5 -102
+386
O 48.0 -114
DAL
-8.5 -108
-473
U 48.0 +102

Model vs market

Projected score
TB 20.1 – DAL 30.9
Projected total
51.0
Market 48 · model +3.0
Projected margin
DAL 10.8
Market DAL -8.5 · model DAL -10.8
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
TB ML Moneyline · +386 20.0% 22.1% — — 🔒
DAL ML Moneyline · -473 80.0% 77.9% — — 🔒
TB +8.5 Spread · -102 49.3% 43.8% — — 🔒
DAL -8.5 Spread · -108 50.7% 56.2% — — 🔒
Over 48 Total · -114 51.8% 59.0% — — 🔒
Under 48 Total · +102 48.2% 41.0% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Why the model leans this way 14 inputs: 8 favor DAL, 4 favor TB, 2 even.

DAL
Strong edge to DAL: Scoring Power (PPG).
Dallas Cowboys: 30.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 19.0
DAL
Strong edge to DAL: QB / Key Injuries.
Home [healthy] vs Away [QB OUT]
DAL
Moderate edge to DAL: Passing Efficiency (YPA).
Dallas Cowboys: 6.6 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4.9
TB
Moderate edge to TB: Defensive Strength.
Dallas Cowboys allows 28.0 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24.0
DAL
Moderate edge to DAL: Turnover Differential.
Dallas Cowboys +0.0 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.2
Category leans
Power / efficiencyDAL +25.5
TBDAL
SituationalDAL +47.3
TBDAL
Sharp moneyDAL +18.8
TBDAL
MatchupDAL +45.5
TBDAL
All 14 model inputs
Input TB DAL Edge
Scoring Power (PPG)Dallas Cowboys: 30.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 19.0 19.0 30.5 DAL
QB / Key InjuriesHome [healthy] vs Away [QB OUT] 2 2 DAL
Passing Efficiency (YPA)Dallas Cowboys: 6.6 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4.9 4.85 6.62 DAL
Defensive StrengthDallas Cowboys allows 28.0 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 24.0 24.0 28.0 TB
Turnover DifferentialDallas Cowboys +0.0 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.2 -1.25 0 DAL
Third Down EfficiencyDallas Cowboys: 51.0% vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 34.5% 34.5 51.0 DAL
Red Zone EfficiencyDallas Cowboys: 76.5% vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 41.7% 41.7 76.5 DAL
Sharp vs Public (Spread)Contrarian: public 75% home 25.0 75.0 TB
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy)Dallas Cowboys: 5.56 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4.68 4.68 5.56 DAL
Rushing Dominance (YPC)Dallas Cowboys: 3.8 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4.4 4.43 3.81 TB
Special Teams (FG%)Dallas Cowboys: 72.7% vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 100.0% 100 72.7 TB
Home Field Advantage~2.5 point home advantage (NFL) 0 2.50 DAL
Reverse Line MovementSpread moved +1.0 from open -9.5 to -8.5 -9.50 -8.50 Even
Pass Rush (Sacks)Dallas Cowboys: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1.5 1.50 1 Even

Each input compares the two teams and pushes the projection toward one side; the biggest pushes (weight × size) are listed above.

Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Efficiency · play-by-play Play-by-play · as of 2026-10-08
-0.154 #31/32
EPA / play
+0.162 #6/32
-0.211 #32/32
Pass EPA / play
+0.258 #5/32
-0.040 #13/32
Rush EPA / play
-0.030 #10/32
38.7% #29/32
Success rate
47.6% #9/32
-0.059 #6/32
EPA / play allowed
+0.201 #32/32
+0.044 #14/32
Pass EPA allowed
+0.440 #32/32
-0.223 #4/32
Rush EPA allowed
-0.081 #16/32
40.1% #6/32
Success rate allowed
52.5% #32/32
Offense Season team stats
19.0 #24/32
Points / game
30.5 #2/32
4.68 #29/32
Yards / play
5.56 #13/32
172 #28/32
Pass yards / game
258 #7/32
106 #18/32
Rush yards / game
90 #25/32
4.9 #32/32
Yards / pass attempt
6.6 #15/32
4.4 #10/32
Yards / carry
3.8 #26/32
63.5% #18/32
Completion %
70.0% #5/32
34.5% #25/32
3rd down %
51.0% #4/32
41.7% #31/32
Red zone TD %
76.5% #4/32
60
Plays / game
62
Defense Season team stats
24.0 #19/32
Points allowed / game
28.0 #28/32
5.16 #10/32
Yards / play allowed
6.51 #32/32
204 #9/32
Pass yards allowed
239 #24/32
82 #3/32
Rush yards allowed
152 #31/32
6.3 #16/32
Opp yards / pass attempt
8.2 #32/32
1.5 #26/32
Sacks / game
1.0 #28/32
Ball security & special teams
2.25 #30/32
Giveaways / game
0.50 #4/32
1.00 #17/32
Takeaways / game
0.50 #27/32
-1.25
Turnover margin / game
+0.00
100.0% #1/32
Field goal %
72.7% #25/32
Splits & results
-5.0 #23/32
Point differential / game
+2.5 #12/32
16.3
Home PPG
34.0
27.0
Road PPG
27.0

Injuries & rest

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Starting QB Out
Injury report: 4 out · 0 doubtful · 0 questionable
2 key players out — critical
4 days rest
Dallas Cowboys
Injury report: 3 out · 0 doubtful · 2 questionable
2 key players out — high
4 days rest

Form & trends

Public betting · 110506 bets tracked
TB 25% 75% DAL Spread tickets
TB 32% 68% DAL Spread money
Under 26% 74% Over Total tickets

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Play-by-playSeason team statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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