NHL picks
NHL American Airlines Center
Away

New York Islanders

5-3
Final
3 – 6
Pregame proj 2.49–3.58
Home

Dallas Stars

6-3

LiveIn-game

Loading the action…

PMill verdict

🔒 PMill pick is locked

Buy credits or subscribe for $39.99/mo. Every stat, projection and price on this page stays free.

Start 7-day free trial

PMill Pro unlocks this verdict and every game on the board, $39.99/mo or $299/yr. Cancel anytime.

Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
NYI +154 open +145 37.8% —
DAL -185 open -172 62.2% —
Puck line 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
NYI +1.5 -166 62.4% w/ vig 60.0% —
DAL -1.5 +140 41.7% w/ vig 40.0% —
Total 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o5.5 +110 47.6% w/ vig 45.7% —
Under u5.5 -130 56.5% w/ vig 54.3% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

Tap a price to add it to your slip

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Puck Line
ML
O/U
NYI
+1.5 -166
+154
O 5.5 +110
DAL
-1.5 +140
-185
U 5.5 -130

Model vs market

Projected score
NYI 2.49 – DAL 3.58
Projected total
6.28
Market 5.5 · model +0.8
Projected margin
DAL 1.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 56.5% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 43.5% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines NYI–DAL

2–2
6.2%
3–3
6.2%
2–3
5.1%
2–4
4.6%
1–3
4.1%
3–4
3.8%
Over 5.5: 56%Over 6.5: 46%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

Start 7-day free trial

PMill Pro unlocks this breakdown plus every game on the board, $39.99/mo or $299/yr. Cancel anytime.

Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.85 #20/27
Goals / game
3.10 #12/27
2.92 #6/27
Goals against / game
2.39 #2/27
26.7 #14/27
Shots for / game
26.7 #14/27
25.5 #7/27
Shots against / game
22.0 #1/27
20.0% #17/27
Power play %
16.0% #21/27
88.2% #4/27
Penalty kill %
91.7% #3/27
54.5% #3/27
Faceoff %
57.1% #1/27
0.93 #20/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.00 #12/27
0.95 #6/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.81 #2/27
0.48 #21/27
Form points / game
1.95 #1/27
1450 #20/27
Elo
1614 #3/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
49.8%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
50.8%
2.43
xGF / 60
2.25
2.45
xGA / 60
2.17
50.6%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
49.8%
48.1%
High-danger shot share
47.5%
6.64
Power play xGF / 60
8.21
7.34
Penalty kill xGA / 60
5.58

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Ilya Sorokin Goalie priced Jake Oettinger
+0.36
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.22
+7.8
GSAx this season
+10.4
+25.3
GSAx last season
+5.7
92.8%
Save %
93.6%
1.87
Goals-against avg
1.34
7
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

New York Islanders
Goalie Ilya Sorokin Confirmed
2 days rest
Dallas Stars
Goalie Jake Oettinger Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

NYI · last 6
WLWWLL
DAL · last 6
LWWWWW
Home / road splits (per game)
DAL at home
Scores 3.19 · allows 2.63
NYI on the road
Scores 2.71 · allows 3.01

AI Analysis Experimental

Dallas hosts the Islanders with both teams on two days of rest and both starting goaltenders confirmed: Ilya Sorokin for New York and Jake Oettinger for Dallas. Dallas carries the stronger season record and the better underlying team-strength metrics, while the Islanders' goaltending grades slightly better in the model's inputs.

The available news adds no new roster information for either club. Items in the feed concern other teams' injuries and other matchups, or are community and live-page content rather than reporting on this game.

With confirmed goaltenders and no late injury, lineup or travel developments, the matchup picture is essentially the one already reflected in the numbers, and the main uncertainty is ordinary game-to-game variance rather than a specific piece of news.

Sourced findings
  • Jake Oettinger is confirmed as Dallas's starting goaltender for this game, matching the structured roster input already used by the model.
    RotoWire Already priced
  • Remaining news items concern other teams (Seattle's McCann injury, Rangers' Korpisalo, Jets-Canadiens, Canucks-Ducks) or are community/live-page filler with no bearing on this matchup.
    NHL.com Already priced

An AI research pass over our model and recent headlines (). It only uses the model's numbers and the linked sources, is tracked like a model, and does not change the pick. Unlock the game to see which side the research leans to.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

Community

Loading community picks…

Community picks —
Live thread
Real-time chat during the game.
Open

Discussion 0

Be respectful. Bad takes are fine, bad manners are not.