NHL picks
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Colorado Avalanche

6-4
Final
2 – 6
Pregame proj 3.9–2.52
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Nashville Predators

3-3

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ NSH moneyline opened +155, now +195
  • ↕ Total opened 5.5, now 6.5
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
COL -238 open -185 67.5% —
NSH +195 open +155 32.5% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
COL -1.5 +105 48.8% w/ vig 46.8% —
NSH +1.5 -125 55.6% w/ vig 53.2% —
Total 4.6% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -118 open o5.5 51.7% —
Under u6.5 -102 open u5.5 48.3% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
COL
-1.5 +105
-238
O 6.5 -118
NSH
+1.5 -125
+195
U 6.5 -102

Model vs market

Projected score
COL 3.9 – NSH 2.52
Projected total
6.61
Market 6.5 · model +0.1
Projected margin
COL 1.4
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 61.8% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 38.2% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines COL–NSH

3–3
5.8%
2–2
5.3%
3–2
4.8%
4–2
4.7%
4–3
4.0%
3–1
3.8%
Over 5.5: 62%Over 6.5: 51%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.71 #1/27
Goals / game
2.83 #21/27
2.77 #4/27
Goals against / game
3.30 #21/27
30.0 #5/27
Shots for / game
24.9 #22/27
27.9 #17/27
Shots against / game
30.1 #22/27
20.0% #17/27
Power play %
27.6% #5/27
82.8% #8/27
Penalty kill %
83.9% #6/27
47.2% #23/27
Faceoff %
49.4% #19/27
1.15 #2/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.93 #21/27
0.91 #4/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.05 #21/27
1.13 #11/27
Form points / game
0.28 #24/27
1571 #5/27
Elo
1447 #20/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
54.3%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
47.2%
2.76
xGF / 60
2.32
2.32
xGA / 60
2.60
53.3%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
47.6%
50.8%
High-danger shot share
53.8%
6.70
Power play xGF / 60
6.27
6.22
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.12

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Scott Wedgewood Goalie priced Justus Annunen
+0.23
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.05
-0.2
GSAx this season
-1.5
+23.1
GSAx last season
+8.3
91.3%
Save %
90.4%
2.32
Goals-against avg
2.81
3
Starts
1

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Colorado Avalanche
Goalie Scott Wedgewood Confirmed
1 day rest
Nashville Predators
Goalie Justus Annunen Confirmed
Back-to-back

Form & trends

COL · last 6
WLWLLW
NSH · last 6
LLLWLL
Home / road splits (per game)
NSH at home
Scores 2.92 · allows 3.13
COL on the road
Scores 3.28 · allows 2.66

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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