NHL picks
NHL Madison Square Garden
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Los Angeles Kings

2-5-2
@ Proj 2.79–3.36
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New York Rangers

7-5-1
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
LA +120 open +120 43.7% —
NYR -142 open -141 56.3% —
Puck line 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
LA +1.5 -230 69.7% w/ vig 66.9% —
NYR -1.5 +190 34.5% w/ vig 33.1% —
Total 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o5.5 -125 55.6% w/ vig 53.2% —
Under u5.5 +105 48.8% w/ vig 46.8% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
LA
+1.5 -230
+120
O 5.5 -125
NYR
-1.5 +190
-142
U 5.5 +105

Model vs market

Projected score
LA 2.79 – NYR 3.36
Projected total
6.37
Market 5.5 · model +0.9
Projected margin
NYR 0.6
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
LA ML Moneyline · +120 43.7% 37.0% — — 🔒
NYR ML Moneyline · -142 56.3% 63.0% — — 🔒
LA +1.5 Spread · -230 66.9% 67.7% — — 🔒
NYR -1.5 Spread · +190 33.1% 32.3% — — 🔒
Over 5.5 Total · -125 53.2% 57.7% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · +105 46.8% 42.3% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines LA–NYR

3–3
6.6%
2–2
6.3%
2–3
4.9%
2–4
4.1%
3–2
4.1%
4–4
3.9%
Over 5.5: 58%Over 6.5: 47%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.73 #24/27
Goals / game
3.08 #13/27
3.21 #17/27
Goals against / game
2.94 #6/27
27.2 #12/27
Shots for / game
24.5 #23/27
29.1 #19/27
Shots against / game
26.3 #12/27
14.8% #22/27
Power play %
18.9% #19/27
65.5% #26/27
Penalty kill %
92.3% #2/27
51.0% #11/27
Faceoff %
53.4% #7/27
0.90 #24/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.99 #13/27
1.02 #17/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.95 #6/27
0.79 #18/27
Form points / game
0.33 #22/27
1425 #23/27
Elo
1509 #12/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
50.2%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
49.8%
2.30
xGF / 60
2.36
2.28
xGA / 60
2.38
50.5%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
48.3%
53.4%
High-danger shot share
54.4%
6.01
Power play xGF / 60
7.96
7.34
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.30

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Darcy Kuemper Goalie priced Dylan Garand
-0.10
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.03
-1.1
GSAx this season
+0.0
-5.8
GSAx last season
+3.9
88.6%
Save %
89.9%
3.55
Goals-against avg
2.69
6
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Los Angeles Kings
Goalie Darcy Kuemper Unconfirmed
1 day rest
New York Rangers
Goalie Dylan Garand Unconfirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

LA · last 6
LLLWWL
NYR · last 6
WLLWLL
Home / road splits (per game)
NYR at home
Scores 3.25 · allows 2.75
LA on the road
Scores 2.92 · allows 3.11

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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