NHL picks
NHL Scotiabank Saddledome
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Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2
@ Proj 3.22–3.07
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Calgary Flames

4-6-0
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ CGY moneyline opened -100, now +136
Moneyline 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TOR -162 open -120 59.3% —
CGY +136 open -100 40.7% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TOR -1.5 +150 40.0% w/ vig 38.4% —
CGY +1.5 -180 64.3% w/ vig 61.6% —
Total 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -125 55.6% w/ vig 53.2% —
Under u6.5 +105 48.8% w/ vig 46.8% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
TOR
-1.5 +150
-162
O 6.5 -125
CGY
+1.5 -180
+136
U 6.5 +105

Model vs market

Projected score
TOR 3.22 – CGY 3.07
Projected total
6.51
Market 6.5 · model +0.0
Projected margin
TOR 0.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
TOR ML Moneyline · -162 59.3% 47.2% — — 🔒
CGY ML Moneyline · +136 40.7% 52.8% — — 🔒
TOR -1.5 Spread · +150 38.4% 27.0% — — 🔒
CGY +1.5 Spread · -180 61.6% 73.0% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -125 53.2% 49.7% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · +105 46.8% 50.3% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines TOR–CGY

3–3
6.7%
2–2
6.1%
3–2
4.5%
2–3
4.3%
4–4
4.2%
4–3
3.7%
Over 5.5: 60%Over 6.5: 50%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.40 #5/27
Goals / game
2.58 #25/27
3.32 #22/27
Goals against / game
3.39 #23/27
28.6 #9/27
Shots for / game
28.7 #8/27
30.0 #20/27
Shots against / game
30.5 #25/27
30.2% #4/27
Power play %
32.0% #3/27
95.2% #1/27
Penalty kill %
84.9% #5/27
51.7% #9/27
Faceoff %
49.5% #18/27
1.07 #5/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.86 #25/27
1.05 #22/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.07 #23/27
1.87 #1/27
Form points / game
1.80 #4/27
1497 #13/27
Elo
1415 #25/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
46.1%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
46.7%
2.21
xGF / 60
2.29
2.58
xGA / 60
2.61
46.6%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
50.0%
35.1%
High-danger shot share
45.4%
7.63
Power play xGF / 60
6.20
7.10
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.14

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Sergei Bobrovsky Goalie priced Devin Cooley
-0.09
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.23
+2.5
GSAx this season
+1.6
-12.2
GSAx last season
+17.3
89.6%
Save %
90.0%
3.09
Goals-against avg
3.13
8
Starts
5

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky Unconfirmed
1 day rest
Calgary Flames
Goalie Devin Cooley Unconfirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

TOR · last 6
LLWWWW
CGY · last 6
LWLWWW
Home / road splits (per game)
CGY at home
Scores 2.88 · allows 2.90
TOR on the road
Scores 3.39 · allows 3.49

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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