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Columbus Blue Jackets

4-5-0
@ Proj 3.07–2.98
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Philadelphia Flyers

3-7-3
PMill verdict

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Model vs market

Projected score
CBJ 3.07 – PHI 2.98
Projected total
6.28
Projected margin
CBJ 0.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 56.2% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 43.8% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines CBJ–PHI

3–3
6.8%
2–2
6.7%
3–2
4.7%
2–3
4.6%
4–4
3.9%
4–2
3.6%
Over 5.5: 56%Over 6.5: 46%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.87 #19/27
Goals / game
2.53 #27/27
3.08 #11/27
Goals against / game
3.14 #15/27
26.8 #13/27
Shots for / game
22.7 #25/27
27.7 #16/27
Shots against / game
31.5 #26/27
11.5% #24/27
Power play %
16.3% #20/27
71.0% #20/27
Penalty kill %
82.6% #9/27
54.7% #2/27
Faceoff %
50.7% #13/27
0.94 #18/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.85 #27/27
0.99 #11/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.01 #15/27
1.08 #11/27
Form points / game
0.94 #13/27
1473 #16/27
Elo
1460 #19/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
49.2%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
44.2%
2.39
xGF / 60
2.02
2.46
xGA / 60
2.58
50.0%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
45.5%
50.1%
High-danger shot share
43.6%
6.07
Power play xGF / 60
6.91
7.57
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.45

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Jet Greaves Goalie priced Dan Vladar
+0.13
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.15
-0.4
GSAx this season
+1.8
+16.5
GSAx last season
+13.8
88.2%
Save %
90.0%
3.34
Goals-against avg
3.15
5
Starts
6

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Columbus Blue Jackets
Goalie Jet Greaves Unconfirmed
2 days rest
Philadelphia Flyers
Goalie Dan Vladar Unconfirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

CBJ · last 6
LLWLLW
PHI · last 6
LLWWWL
Home / road splits (per game)
PHI at home
Scores 2.63 · allows 3.02
CBJ on the road
Scores 2.83 · allows 3.17

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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