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Boston Bruins

9-2-1
@ Proj 2.7–3.75
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Carolina Hurricanes

9-2-2
PMill verdict

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Model vs market

Projected score
BOS 2.7 – CAR 3.75
Projected total
6.65
Projected margin
CAR 1.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 62.1% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 37.9% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines BOS–CAR

3–3
6.2%
2–2
5.5%
2–3
4.8%
2–4
4.5%
3–4
4.0%
4–4
3.9%
Over 5.5: 62%Over 6.5: 52%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.48 #3/27
Goals / game
3.69 #2/27
2.69 #2/27
Goals against / game
2.84 #5/27
26.2 #19/27
Shots for / game
33.9 #2/27
27.9 #17/27
Shots against / game
22.4 #2/27
22.2% #11/27
Power play %
25.5% #7/27
78.6% #16/27
Penalty kill %
83.7% #7/27
53.5% #6/27
Faceoff %
50.3% #15/27
1.09 #3/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.15 #2/27
0.89 #2/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.93 #5/27
1.72 #5/27
Form points / game
1.34 #6/27
1618 #2/27
Elo
1646 #1/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
51.5%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
57.8%
2.58
xGF / 60
2.98
2.42
xGA / 60
2.16
49.2%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
58.0%
52.6%
High-danger shot share
59.6%
6.89
Power play xGF / 60
7.41
6.56
Penalty kill xGA / 60
5.84

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Jeremy Swayman Goalie priced Pyotr Kochetkov
+0.35
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.11
+6.0
GSAx this season
+4.4
+28.8
GSAx last season
-0.0
92.0%
Save %
90.8%
2.19
Goals-against avg
1.93
9
Starts
7

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Boston Bruins
Goalie Jeremy Swayman Unconfirmed
2 days rest
Carolina Hurricanes
Goalie Pyotr Kochetkov Unconfirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

BOS · last 6
WWWLWW
CAR · last 6
WWLWLW
Home / road splits (per game)
CAR at home
Scores 3.67 · allows 3.00
BOS on the road
Scores 3.10 · allows 3.23

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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