NHL picks
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New York Islanders

5-3-2
@ Proj 3.23–3.07
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Nashville Predators

3-3-4
PMill verdict

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Model vs market

Projected score
NYI 3.23 – NSH 3.07
Projected total
6.52
Projected margin
NYI 0.2
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 60.1% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 39.9% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines NYI–NSH

3–3
6.7%
2–2
6.1%
3–2
4.5%
2–3
4.3%
4–4
4.2%
4–3
3.8%
Over 5.5: 60%Over 6.5: 50%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.85 #20/27
Goals / game
2.83 #21/27
2.83 #4/27
Goals against / game
3.30 #21/27
26.7 #14/27
Shots for / game
24.9 #22/27
25.5 #7/27
Shots against / game
30.1 #22/27
20.0% #17/27
Power play %
27.6% #5/27
88.2% #4/27
Penalty kill %
83.9% #6/27
54.5% #3/27
Faceoff %
49.4% #19/27
0.93 #20/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.93 #21/27
0.93 #4/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.05 #21/27
0.87 #15/27
Form points / game
0.28 #24/27
1461 #18/27
Elo
1447 #20/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
49.8%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
47.2%
2.43
xGF / 60
2.32
2.45
xGA / 60
2.60
50.6%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
47.6%
48.1%
High-danger shot share
53.8%
6.64
Power play xGF / 60
6.27
7.34
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.12

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Ilya Sorokin Goalie priced Justus Annunen
+0.36
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.05
+7.8
GSAx this season
-1.5
+25.3
GSAx last season
+8.3
92.8%
Save %
90.4%
1.87
Goals-against avg
2.81
7
Starts
1

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
New York Islanders
Goalie Ilya Sorokin Unconfirmed
1 day rest
Nashville Predators
Goalie Justus Annunen Unconfirmed
3rd game in 4 nights

Form & trends

NYI · last 6
LWLWWL
NSH · last 6
LLLWLL
Home / road splits (per game)
NSH at home
Scores 2.92 · allows 3.13
NYI on the road
Scores 2.70 · allows 2.89

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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