NHL picks
NHL American Airlines Center
Away

New Jersey Devils

7-4-0
@ Proj 2.86–3.13
Home

Dallas Stars

6-3-1
PMill verdict

🔒 PMill pick is locked

Buy credits or subscribe for $39.99/mo. Every stat, projection and price on this page stays free.

Start 7-day free trial

PMill Pro unlocks this verdict and every game on the board, $39.99/mo or $299/yr. Cancel anytime.

Model vs market

Projected score
NJ 2.86 – DAL 3.13
Projected total
6.21
Projected margin
DAL 0.3
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 55.2% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 44.8% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines NJ–DAL

2–2
6.8%
3–3
6.8%
2–3
4.9%
3–2
4.5%
2–4
3.8%
4–4
3.8%
Over 5.5: 55%Over 6.5: 45%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

Start 7-day free trial

PMill Pro unlocks this breakdown plus every game on the board, $39.99/mo or $299/yr. Cancel anytime.

Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.03 #14/27
Goals / game
3.01 #16/27
2.97 #7/27
Goals against / game
2.37 #1/27
34.1 #1/27
Shots for / game
26.7 #14/27
23.9 #4/27
Shots against / game
22.0 #1/27
20.6% #16/27
Power play %
16.0% #21/27
74.1% #19/27
Penalty kill %
91.7% #3/27
51.1% #10/27
Faceoff %
57.1% #1/27
0.98 #14/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.97 #16/27
0.96 #7/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.81 #1/27
1.85 #3/27
Form points / game
1.87 #1/27
1537 #9/27
Elo
1603 #3/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
54.1%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
50.8%
2.63
xGF / 60
2.25
2.23
xGA / 60
2.17
54.7%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
49.8%
53.5%
High-danger shot share
47.5%
7.81
Power play xGF / 60
8.21
6.12
Penalty kill xGA / 60
5.58

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Jake Allen Goalie priced Jake Oettinger
-0.03
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.22
-3.5
GSAx this season
+10.4
+6.3
GSAx last season
+5.7
88.4%
Save %
93.6%
2.86
Goals-against avg
1.34
7
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

New Jersey Devils
Goalie Jake Allen Unconfirmed
2 days rest
Dallas Stars
Goalie Jake Oettinger Unconfirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

NJ · last 6
WWLWWW
DAL · last 6
LLWWWW
Home / road splits (per game)
DAL at home
Scores 3.09 · allows 2.62
NJ on the road
Scores 2.75 · allows 3.34

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

Community

Loading community picks…

Community picks —
Live thread
Real-time chat during the game.
Open

Discussion 0

Be respectful. Bad takes are fine, bad manners are not.