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Florida Panthers

5-4-2
@ Proj 3.22–3.07
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Winnipeg Jets

4-3-3
PMill verdict

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Model vs market

Projected score
FLA 3.22 – WPG 3.07
Projected total
6.51
Projected margin
FLA 0.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 59.9% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 40.1% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines FLA–WPG

3–3
6.7%
2–2
6.1%
3–2
4.5%
2–3
4.3%
4–4
4.2%
4–3
3.7%
Over 5.5: 60%Over 6.5: 50%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.03 #14/27
Goals / game
2.76 #23/27
3.21 #17/27
Goals against / game
3.08 #11/27
28.1 #10/27
Shots for / game
26.5 #16/27
24.4 #5/27
Shots against / game
30.0 #20/27
19.2% #18/27
Power play %
22.2% #11/27
82.6% #9/27
Penalty kill %
80.8% #12/27
45.5% #24/27
Faceoff %
45.0% #25/27
0.98 #14/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.91 #23/27
1.02 #17/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.99 #12/27
0.52 #20/27
Form points / game
0.08 #26/27
1480 #15/27
Elo
1438 #21/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
51.4%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
47.6%
2.35
xGF / 60
2.29
2.23
xGA / 60
2.52
53.3%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
48.4%
49.2%
High-danger shot share
41.6%
7.70
Power play xGF / 60
6.82
5.97
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.48

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Akira Schmid Goalie priced Stuart Skinner
-0.12
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.16
-3.4
GSAx this season
+5.0
-1.0
GSAx last season
+8.3
88.7%
Save %
90.9%
2.74
Goals-against avg
2.74
4
Starts
7

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Florida Panthers
Goalie Akira Schmid Unconfirmed
1 day rest
Winnipeg Jets
Goalie Stuart Skinner Unconfirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

FLA · last 6
LWWWLL
WPG · last 6
LWLLLL
Home / road splits (per game)
WPG at home
Scores 2.98 · allows 3.05
FLA on the road
Scores 2.80 · allows 3.43

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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