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Minnesota Wild

7-3-2
@ Proj 3.1–3.33
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Utah Mammoth

8-4-0
PMill verdict

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Model vs market

Projected score
MIN 3.1 – UTA 3.33
Projected total
6.65
Projected margin
UTA 0.2
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 62.0% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 38.0% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines MIN–UTA

3–3
6.7%
2–2
5.8%
2–3
4.5%
4–4
4.3%
3–2
4.1%
3–4
3.8%
Over 5.5: 62%Over 6.5: 52%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.11 #11/27
Goals / game
3.44 #4/27
2.73 #3/27
Goals against / game
3.11 #14/27
31.1 #3/27
Shots for / game
30.4 #4/27
25.6 #8/27
Shots against / game
23.5 #3/27
24.3% #9/27
Power play %
38.1% #1/27
80.0% #14/27
Penalty kill %
66.7% #24/27
50.9% #12/27
Faceoff %
54.1% #4/27
1.00 #11/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.08 #4/27
0.90 #3/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.00 #14/27
1.16 #10/27
Form points / game
1.34 #6/27
1559 #5/27
Elo
1558 #6/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
54.0%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
54.7%
2.60
xGF / 60
2.71
2.21
xGA / 60
2.24
51.0%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
54.2%
56.6%
High-danger shot share
57.3%
7.49
Power play xGF / 60
7.70
6.70
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.48

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Calvin Pickard Goalie priced Karel Vejmelka
-0.18
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.04
-2.2
GSAx this season
-4.7
-3.5
GSAx last season
+6.9
88.2%
Save %
87.2%
3.28
Goals-against avg
3.19
1
Starts
9

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Minnesota Wild
Goalie Calvin Pickard Unconfirmed
3rd game in 4 nights
Utah Mammoth
Goalie Karel Vejmelka Unconfirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

MIN · last 6
LWWLLW
UTA · last 6
WWLWLW
Home / road splits (per game)
UTA at home
Scores 3.53 · allows 3.09
MIN on the road
Scores 3.12 · allows 2.93

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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