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Ottawa Senators

8-4-0
@ Proj 2.91–3.14
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Vegas Golden Knights

8-4-1
PMill verdict

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Model vs market

Projected score
OTT 2.91 – VGK 3.14
Projected total
6.27
Projected margin
VGK 0.2
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 56.2% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 43.8% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines OTT–VGK

3–3
6.8%
2–2
6.7%
2–3
4.8%
3–2
4.5%
4–4
3.9%
2–4
3.8%
Over 5.5: 56%Over 6.5: 46%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.18 #8/27
Goals / game
3.36 #7/27
3.04 #9/27
Goals against / game
3.00 #8/27
25.4 #20/27
Shots for / game
29.8 #5/27
25.9 #11/27
Shots against / game
25.1 #6/27
11.5% #24/27
Power play %
24.4% #8/27
79.1% #15/27
Penalty kill %
67.7% #23/27
52.4% #8/27
Faceoff %
50.6% #14/27
1.02 #8/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.06 #7/27
0.98 #9/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.97 #8/27
1.29 #9/27
Form points / game
0.29 #23/27
1551 #7/27
Elo
1524 #11/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
53.2%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
53.6%
2.44
xGF / 60
2.56
2.15
xGA / 60
2.21
49.6%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
52.1%
61.2%
High-danger shot share
49.0%
6.29
Power play xGF / 60
7.79
6.53
Penalty kill xGA / 60
5.80

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Samuel Ersson Goalie priced Carter Hart
-0.38
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.12
-5.8
GSAx this season
-1.2
-16.5
GSAx last season
-4.2
87.6%
Save %
88.7%
3.03
Goals-against avg
2.81
3
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Ottawa Senators
Goalie Samuel Ersson Unconfirmed
2 days rest
✈ -3h time-zone shift
Vegas Golden Knights
Goalie Carter Hart Unconfirmed
2 days rest
✈ -3h time-zone shift

Form & trends

OTT · last 6
LWLWLW
VGK · last 6
WWWLLL
Home / road splits (per game)
VGK at home
Scores 3.59 · allows 3.06
OTT on the road
Scores 3.14 · allows 3.20

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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