NHL picks
NHL Scotiabank Arena
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Utah Mammoth

9-6
Final
3 – 2
Pregame proj 3.55–2.89
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Toronto Maple Leafs

8-6

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ TOR moneyline opened -100, now +124
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
UTA -148 open -120 57.2% —
TOR +124 open -100 42.8% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
UTA -1.5 +164 37.9% w/ vig 36.3% —
TOR +1.5 -198 66.4% w/ vig 63.7% —
Total 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -135 57.4% w/ vig 55.1% —
Under u6.5 +114 46.7% w/ vig 44.9% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
UTA
-1.5 +164
-148
O 6.5 -135
TOR
+1.5 -198
+124
U 6.5 +114

Model vs market

Projected score
UTA 3.55 – TOR 2.89
Projected total
6.65
Market 6.5 · model +0.2
Projected margin
UTA 0.7
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 62.2% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 37.8% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines UTA–TOR

3–3
6.3%
2–2
5.5%
3–2
4.7%
4–2
4.2%
4–4
4.0%
4–3
4.0%
Over 5.5: 62%Over 6.5: 52%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.38 #6/29
Goals / game
3.39 #6/29
3.18 #17/29
Goals against / game
3.38 #27/29
29.9 #5/29
Shots for / game
28.1 #10/29
24.5 #3/29
Shots against / game
29.3 #23/29
34.6% #1/29
Power play %
30.0% #6/29
68.8% #25/29
Penalty kill %
91.1% #2/29
54.5% #5/29
Faceoff %
52.8% #7/29
1.06 #6/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.07 #6/29
1.01 #18/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.06 #27/29
0.71 #18/29
Form points / game
1.21 #11/29
1525 #11/29
Elo
1476 #16/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
54.9%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
46.6%
2.70
xGF / 60
2.21
2.22
xGA / 60
2.54
53.7%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
46.6%
59.0%
High-danger shot share
35.8%
7.53
Power play xGF / 60
7.89
7.55
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.13

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Sebastian Cossa Goalie priced Sergei Bobrovsky
-0.17
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.13
-3.1
GSAx this season
-0.0
+0.0
GSAx last season
-12.2
87.7%
Save %
88.6%
3.31
Goals-against avg
3.27
4
Starts
10

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Utah Mammoth
Goalie Sebastian Cossa Confirmed
1 day rest
Toronto Maple Leafs
Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky Confirmed
2 days rest
✈ +2h time-zone shift

Form & trends

UTA · last 6
WLWLWL
TOR · last 6
WWWLLW
Home / road splits (per game)
TOR at home
Scores 3.20 · allows 3.29
UTA on the road
Scores 3.23 · allows 3.14

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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