NHL picks
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Edmonton Oilers

11-2
Final/SO
3 – 4
Pregame proj 2.85–3.26
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New Jersey Devils

10-5

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ NJ moneyline opened -125, now -162
Moneyline 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
EDM +136 open +105 40.7% —
NJ -162 open -125 59.3% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
EDM +1.5 -185 64.9% w/ vig 62.2% —
NJ -1.5 +154 39.4% w/ vig 37.8% —
Total 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 +110 47.6% w/ vig 45.7% —
Under u6.5 -130 56.5% w/ vig 54.3% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
EDM
+1.5 -185
+136
O 6.5 +110
NJ
-1.5 +154
-162
U 6.5 -130

Model vs market

Projected score
EDM 2.85 – NJ 3.26
Projected total
6.32
Market 6.5 · model -0.2
Projected margin
NJ 0.4
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 57.0% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 43.0% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines EDM–NJ

3–3
6.5%
2–2
6.3%
2–3
4.9%
3–2
4.3%
2–4
4.0%
3–4
3.8%
Over 5.5: 57%Over 6.5: 47%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.71 #3/29
Goals / game
3.11 #15/29
3.01 #8/29
Goals against / game
2.95 #5/29
25.9 #19/29
Shots for / game
32.6 #2/29
26.3 #11/29
Shots against / game
24.8 #6/29
32.7% #3/29
Power play %
16.7% #21/29
75.6% #18/29
Penalty kill %
70.0% #23/29
48.8% #18/29
Faceoff %
50.1% #16/29
1.15 #3/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.99 #15/29
0.97 #8/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.95 #5/29
1.76 #4/29
Form points / game
1.49 #8/29
1609 #2/29
Elo
1570 #7/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
50.7%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
53.7%
2.34
xGF / 60
2.56
2.27
xGA / 60
2.21
49.0%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
54.1%
54.2%
High-danger shot share
50.3%
8.54
Power play xGF / 60
7.81
7.49
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.61

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Tristan Jarry Goalie priced Connor Hellebuyck
-0.11
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.05
-1.6
GSAx this season
+0.5
-4.1
GSAx last season
+5.5
89.8%
Save %
89.2%
2.63
Goals-against avg
2.86
7
Starts
2

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Edmonton Oilers
Goalie Tristan Jarry Confirmed
3rd game in 4 nights
New Jersey Devils
Goalie Connor Hellebuyck Confirmed
3 days rest

Form & trends

EDM · last 6
WLLWWW
NJ · last 6
WWWWLW
Home / road splits (per game)
NJ at home
Scores 3.17 · allows 2.77
EDM on the road
Scores 3.67 · allows 2.79

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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