NHL picks
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Colorado Avalanche

9-6
Final
2 – 7
Pregame proj 3.5–2.79
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Columbus Blue Jackets

6-7

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
COL -125 open -135 53.2% —
CBJ +105 open +115 46.8% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
COL -1.5 +195 33.9% w/ vig 32.5% —
CBJ +1.5 -238 70.4% w/ vig 67.5% —
Total 4.5% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 +102 49.5% w/ vig 47.4% —
Under u6.5 -122 55.0% w/ vig 52.6% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
COL
-1.5 +195
-125
O 6.5 +102
CBJ
+1.5 -238
+105
U 6.5 -122

Model vs market

Projected score
COL 3.5 – CBJ 2.79
Projected total
6.49
Market 6.5 · model -0.0
Projected margin
COL 0.7
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 59.8% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 40.2% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines COL–CBJ

3–3
6.3%
2–2
5.8%
3–2
4.9%
4–2
4.3%
4–3
4.0%
2–3
3.9%
Over 5.5: 60%Over 6.5: 49%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.77 #1/29
Goals / game
2.82 #24/29
2.80 #4/29
Goals against / game
3.07 #13/29
30.6 #3/29
Shots for / game
25.6 #21/29
27.6 #15/29
Shots against / game
27.1 #12/29
20.4% #15/29
Power play %
12.9% #26/29
79.1% #14/29
Penalty kill %
73.0% #19/29
48.5% #19/29
Faceoff %
54.9% #2/29
1.17 #1/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.92 #24/29
0.91 #4/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.98 #13/29
1.80 #3/29
Form points / game
0.43 #22/29
1587 #5/29
Elo
1468 #16/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
55.1%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
49.1%
2.79
xGF / 60
2.33
2.27
xGA / 60
2.41
53.5%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
49.8%
53.8%
High-danger shot share
49.1%
6.92
Power play xGF / 60
6.27
6.20
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.72

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Scott Wedgewood Goalie priced Cam Talbot
+0.17
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.13
-3.0
GSAx this season
+2.5
+23.1
GSAx last season
-13.1
91.2%
Save %
89.0%
2.32
Goals-against avg
2.96
4
Starts
5

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Colorado Avalanche
Goalie Scott Wedgewood Confirmed
Back-to-back
Columbus Blue Jackets
Goalie Cam Talbot Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

COL · last 6
LWLWWW
CBJ · last 6
LLWWLL
Home / road splits (per game)
CBJ at home
Scores 3.06 · allows 3.01
COL on the road
Scores 3.30 · allows 2.75

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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