NHL picks
NHL Bridgestone Arena
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Carolina Hurricanes

12-2
Final
1 – 4
Pregame proj 4.13–2.51
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Nashville Predators

5-4

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ NSH moneyline opened +140, now +164
  • ↕ Total opened 5.5, now 6.5
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
CAR -198 open -167 63.7% —
NSH +164 open +140 36.3% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
CAR -1.5 +124 44.6% w/ vig 42.8% —
NSH +1.5 -148 59.7% w/ vig 57.2% —
Total 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 +105 open o5.5 46.8% —
Under u6.5 -125 open u5.5 53.2% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
CAR
-1.5 +124
-198
O 6.5 +105
NSH
+1.5 -148
+164
U 6.5 -125

Model vs market

Projected score
CAR 4.13 – NSH 2.51
Projected total
6.82
Market 6.5 · model +0.3
Projected margin
CAR 1.6
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 64.8% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 35.1% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines CAR–NSH

3–3
5.4%
4–2
4.8%
2–2
4.7%
3–2
4.6%
4–3
4.0%
5–2
3.9%
Over 5.5: 65%Over 6.5: 54%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.72 #2/29
Goals / game
2.98 #19/29
2.69 #2/29
Goals against / game
3.32 #22/29
33.1 #1/29
Shots for / game
26.3 #16/29
22.4 #2/29
Shots against / game
28.9 #22/29
24.1% #7/29
Power play %
31.9% #4/29
83.3% #8/29
Penalty kill %
88.9% #3/29
50.5% #13/29
Faceoff %
50.9% #11/29
1.16 #2/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.96 #19/29
0.88 #2/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.05 #22/29
1.92 #2/29
Form points / game
1.08 #12/29
1668 #1/29
Elo
1465 #18/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
57.8%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
47.6%
2.99
xGF / 60
2.38
2.17
xGA / 60
2.62
57.9%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
48.1%
57.9%
High-danger shot share
57.7%
7.68
Power play xGF / 60
6.46
5.99
Penalty kill xGA / 60
5.71

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Pyotr Kochetkov Goalie priced Juuse Saros
+0.24
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.05
+9.2
GSAx this season
+2.7
-0.0
GSAx last season
-9.3
92.1%
Save %
89.9%
1.70
Goals-against avg
3.00
10
Starts
10

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Carolina Hurricanes
Goalie Pyotr Kochetkov Confirmed
1 day rest
Nashville Predators
Goalie Juuse Saros Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

CAR · last 6
WLWWWW
NSH · last 6
LLWLLW
Home / road splits (per game)
NSH at home
Scores 3.10 · allows 3.18
CAR on the road
Scores 3.57 · allows 2.80

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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