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Columbus Blue Jackets

7-7-0
End of 2nd
1 – 5
Pregame proj 2.84–3.51
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Buffalo Sabres

7-5-3

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ BUF moneyline opened -132, now -170
  • ↕ Total opened 5.5, now 6.5
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
CBJ +142 open +110 39.6% —
BUF -170 open -132 60.4% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
CBJ +1.5 -170 63.0% w/ vig 60.4% —
BUF -1.5 +142 41.3% w/ vig 39.6% —
Total 4.6% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -102 open o5.5 48.3% —
Under u6.5 -118 open u5.5 51.7% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
CBJ
+1.5 -170
+142
O 6.5 -102
BUF
-1.5 +142
-170
U 6.5 -118

Model vs market

Projected score
CBJ 2.84 – BUF 3.51
Projected total
6.56
Market 6.5 · model +0.1
Projected margin
BUF 0.7
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
CBJ ML Moneyline · +142 39.6% 39.2% — — 🔒
BUF ML Moneyline · -170 60.4% 60.8% — — 🔒
CBJ +1.5 Spread · -170 60.4% 65.7% — — 🔒
BUF -1.5 Spread · +142 39.6% 34.3% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -102 48.3% 50.3% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -118 51.7% 49.6% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines CBJ–BUF

3–3
6.4%
2–2
5.8%
2–3
4.8%
2–4
4.2%
3–4
4.0%
4–4
4.0%
Over 5.5: 61%Over 6.5: 50%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.92 #25/31
Goals / game
3.15 #18/31
2.98 #9/31
Goals against / game
3.15 #18/31
25.8 #22/31
Shots for / game
27.9 #11/31
27.6 #19/31
Shots against / game
27.3 #16/31
16.2% #28/31
Power play %
16.3% #27/31
73.2% #24/31
Penalty kill %
69.8% #26/31
53.3% #6/31
Faceoff %
45.2% #29/31
0.94 #25/31
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.00 #18/31
0.96 #10/31
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.00 #18/31
1.57 #7/31
Form points / game
0.94 #16/31
1511 #16/31
Elo
1513 #15/31
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
49.5%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
49.5%
2.37
xGF / 60
2.42
2.42
xGA / 60
2.46
49.5%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
50.7%
52.4%
High-danger shot share
49.7%
6.25
Power play xGF / 60
6.57
7.50
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.61

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Jet Greaves Goalie priced Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
+0.12
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.04
-0.7
GSAx this season
-2.2
+16.5
GSAx last season
+10.5
88.6%
Save %
87.5%
3.08
Goals-against avg
3.38
7
Starts
9

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Columbus Blue Jackets
Goalie Jet Greaves Confirmed
Back-to-back
Buffalo Sabres
Goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Confirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

CBJ · last 6
WWLLWW
BUF · last 6
LLWWWL
Home / road splits (per game)
BUF at home
Scores 3.14 · allows 2.93
CBJ on the road
Scores 2.78 · allows 3.15

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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