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Vegas Golden Knights

9-5-1
Final/SO
2 – 3
Pregame proj 2.99–3.18
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Boston Bruins

10-4-1

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ BOS puck line opened -1.5, now +1.5
Moneyline 4.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
VGK -112 open -105 50.4% —
BOS -108 open -116 49.6% —
Puck line 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
VGK -1.5 +205 open +1.5 31.5% —
BOS +1.5 -250 open -1.5 68.5% —
Total 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 +105 48.8% w/ vig 46.8% —
Under u6.5 -125 55.6% w/ vig 53.2% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
VGK
-1.5 +205
-112
O 6.5 +105
BOS
+1.5 -250
-108
U 6.5 -125

Model vs market

Projected score
VGK 2.99 – BOS 3.18
Projected total
6.39
Market 6.5 · model -0.1
Projected margin
BOS 0.2
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
VGK ML Moneyline · -112 50.4% 43.6% — — 🔒
BOS ML Moneyline · -108 49.6% 56.4% — — 🔒
VGK -1.5 Spread · +205 31.5% 22.9% — — 🔒
BOS +1.5 Spread · -250 68.5% 77.1% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · +105 46.8% 47.7% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -125 53.2% 52.3% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines VGK–BOS

3–3
6.6%
2–2
6.2%
2–3
4.7%
3–2
4.4%
4–4
3.9%
2–4
3.7%
Over 5.5: 58%Over 6.5: 48%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.34 #10/32
Goals / game
3.38 #7/32
3.00 #8/32
Goals against / game
2.74 #5/32
29.1 #8/32
Shots for / game
26.3 #19/32
25.6 #9/32
Shots against / game
28.3 #23/32
27.3% #8/32
Power play %
19.6% #20/32
69.4% #28/32
Penalty kill %
76.9% #18/32
50.5% #14/32
Faceoff %
54.7% #3/32
1.05 #10/32
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.07 #7/32
0.97 #9/32
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.90 #5/32
0.56 #26/32
Form points / game
1.16 #13/32
1520 #14/32
Elo
1589 #6/32
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
53.6%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
50.7%
2.54
xGF / 60
2.53
2.19
xGA / 60
2.45
51.6%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
48.9%
49.3%
High-danger shot share
51.0%
7.83
Power play xGF / 60
6.67
6.10
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.64

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Adin Hill Goalie priced Jeremy Swayman
-0.26
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.35
-2.1
GSAx this season
+6.6
-14.2
GSAx last season
+28.8
88.9%
Save %
91.3%
2.87
Goals-against avg
2.37
7
Starts
11

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Vegas Golden Knights
Goalie Adin Hill Unconfirmed
2 days rest
✈ +2h time-zone shift
Boston Bruins
Goalie Jeremy Swayman Unconfirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

VGK · last 6
WLLLWL
BOS · last 6
LWWLLW
Home / road splits (per game)
BOS at home
Scores 3.74 · allows 2.49
VGK on the road
Scores 3.00 · allows 2.99

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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