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Colorado Avalanche

8-5-1
Final
5 – 2
Pregame proj 4.12–2.37
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Chicago Blackhawks

4-9-1

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ Total opened 6.5, now 5.5
Moneyline 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
COL -230 open -244 66.9% —
CHI +190 open +195 33.1% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
COL -1.5 +105 48.8% w/ vig 46.8% —
CHI +1.5 -125 55.6% w/ vig 53.2% —
Total 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o5.5 -135 open o6.5 55.1% —
Under u5.5 +114 open u6.5 44.9% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
COL
-1.5 +105
-230
O 5.5 -135
CHI
+1.5 -125
+190
U 5.5 +114

Model vs market

Projected score
COL 4.12 – CHI 2.37
Projected total
6.66
Market 5.5 · model +1.2
Projected margin
COL 1.8
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
COL ML Moneyline · -230 66.9% 70.5% — — 🔒
CHI ML Moneyline · +190 33.1% 29.5% — — 🔒
COL -1.5 Spread · +105 46.8% 50.4% — — 🔒
CHI +1.5 Spread · -125 53.2% 49.6% — — 🔒
Over 5.5 Total · -135 55.1% 62.6% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · +114 44.9% 37.4% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines COL–CHI

3–3
5.3%
4–2
4.9%
2–2
4.9%
3–2
4.7%
4–1
4.1%
5–2
4.0%
Over 5.5: 63%Over 6.5: 51%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.73 #1/32
Goals / game
2.52 #32/32
2.82 #5/32
Goals against / game
3.42 #30/32
30.6 #5/32
Shots for / game
23.0 #32/32
27.9 #18/32
Shots against / game
30.4 #29/32
20.4% #17/32
Power play %
11.6% #31/32
76.9% #18/32
Penalty kill %
79.5% #15/32
47.9% #23/32
Faceoff %
41.8% #32/32
1.16 #1/32
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.84 #32/32
0.92 #6/32
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.08 #31/32
1.59 #5/32
Form points / game
0.28 #28/32
1576 #6/32
Elo
1360 #31/32
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
54.7%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
42.7%
2.78
xGF / 60
2.12
2.29
xGA / 60
2.85
53.4%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
45.7%
52.6%
High-danger shot share
40.6%
6.91
Power play xGF / 60
6.20
6.14
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.77

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Mackenzie Blackwood Goalie priced Arvid Soderblom
+0.04
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.20
-1.1
GSAx this season
-4.1
+8.3
GSAx last season
-4.0
89.5%
Save %
87.9%
2.83
Goals-against avg
3.79
10
Starts
3

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Colorado Avalanche
Goalie Mackenzie Blackwood Unconfirmed
1 day rest
Chicago Blackhawks
Goalie Arvid Soderblom Unconfirmed
1 day rest
✈ -2h time-zone shift

Form & trends

COL · last 6
LLWLWW
CHI · last 6
LLLWLL
Home / road splits (per game)
CHI at home
Scores 2.73 · allows 3.17
COL on the road
Scores 3.24 · allows 2.78

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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