NHL picks
NHL Scotiabank Saddledome
Away

Colorado Avalanche

2-1-0
Final
7 – 3
Pregame proj 3.62–2.51
Home

Calgary Flames

0-3-0

LiveIn-game

Loading the action…

PMill verdict

🔒 PMill pick is locked

Buy credits or subscribe for $39.99/mo. Every stat, projection and price on this page stays free.

View plans

Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ CGY moneyline opened +165, now +195
  • ↕ Total opened 5.5, now 6.5
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
COL -238 open -200 67.5% —
CGY +195 open +165 32.5% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
COL -1.5 +105 48.8% w/ vig 46.8% —
CGY +1.5 -125 55.6% w/ vig 53.2% —
Total 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 +105 open o5.5 46.8% —
Under u6.5 -125 open u5.5 53.2% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

Tap a price to add it to your slip

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Puck Line
ML
O/U
COL
-1.5 +105
-238
O 6.5 +105
CGY
+1.5 -125
+195
U 6.5 -125

Model vs market

Projected score
COL 3.62 – CGY 2.51
Projected total
6.34
Market 6.5 · model -0.2
Projected margin
COL 1.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
COL ML Moneyline · -238 67.5% 68.3% — — 🔒
CGY ML Moneyline · +195 32.5% 31.6% — — 🔒
COL -1.5 Spread · +105 46.8% 39.8% — — 🔒
CGY +1.5 Spread · -125 53.2% 60.2% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · +105 46.8% 46.5% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -125 53.2% 53.5% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines COL–CGY

3–3
6.4%
2–2
6.3%
3–2
5.0%
4–2
4.6%
3–1
4.0%
4–3
3.8%
Over 5.5: 57%Over 6.5: 46%

Why the model leans this way 11 inputs: 3 favor CGY, 8 favor COL, 0 even.

CGY
Strong edge to CGY: Rest (B2B vs 3d rest) — COL 0 vs CGY 3.
COL
Slight edge to COL: Attack vs Defense — COL 67.1 vs CGY 3.40.
COL
Slight edge to COL: Elo Rating — COL 1,585 vs CGY 1,367.
COL
Slight edge to COL: Shot Quality (5v5 xGF%) — COL 55.9 vs CGY 46.9.
COL
Slight edge to COL: Sharp ML Money — COL 18.0 vs CGY 3.
All 11 model inputs
Input COL CGY Edge
Rest (B2B vs 3d rest) 0 3 CGY
Attack vs Defense 67.1 3.40 COL
Elo Rating 1,585 1,367 COL
Shot Quality (5v5 xGF%) 55.9 46.9 COL
Sharp ML Money 18.0 3 COL
Recent Form (pts/game) 0.87 0.05 COL
Season Strength (atk/def) 1.14 0.85 COL
Goaltending GSAx/60 (Scott Wedgewood vs Devin Cooley) 0.26 0.21 COL
Special Teams (PP/PK %) 40.0 40.0 COL
Faceoff Win % 48.1 50.3 CGY
Home Ice Advantage 0 1 CGY

Each input compares the two teams and pushes the projection toward one side; the biggest pushes (weight × size) are listed above.

Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.65 #2/32
Goals / game
2.50 #32/32
2.62 #2/32
Goals against / game
3.42 #29/32
33.0 #2/32
Shots for / game
27.3 #13/32
25.3 #12/32
Shots against / game
28.3 #21/32
40.0% #2/32
Power play %
40.0% #2/32
100.0% #1/32
Penalty kill %
90.0% #6/32
48.1% #23/32
Faceoff %
50.3% #16/32
1.14 #2/32
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.85 #32/32
0.88 #2/32
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.08 #29/32
0.87 #17/32
Form points / game
0.05 #31/32
1585 #3/32
Elo
1367 #32/32
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
55.9%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
46.9%
2.84
xGF / 60
2.30
2.23
xGA / 60
2.61
54.3%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
50.7%
58.8%
High-danger shot share
38.8%
6.84
Power play xGF / 60
5.82
5.94
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.39

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Scott Wedgewood Goalie priced Devin Cooley
+0.26
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.21
+0.0
GSAx this season
-0.2
+23.1
GSAx last season
+17.3
91.3%
Save %
89.1%
2.22
Goals-against avg
3.48
0
Starts
1

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Colorado Avalanche
Goalie Scott Wedgewood Confirmed
Back-to-back
Calgary Flames
Goalie Devin Cooley Confirmed
3 days rest

Form & trends

COL · last 6
LWLWWL
CGY · last 6
WLLLLL
Home / road splits (per game)
CGY at home
Scores 2.89 · allows 2.88
COL on the road
Scores 3.20 · allows 2.60

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

Community

Loading community picks…

Community picks —
Live thread
Real-time chat during the game.
Open

Discussion 0

Be respectful. Bad takes are fine, bad manners are not.