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Toronto Maple Leafs

2-2-0
Final/SO
3 – 4
Pregame proj 2.47–3.97
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Vegas Golden Knights

3-1-0

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TOR +142 open +145 39.6% —
VGK -170 open -172 60.4% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TOR +1.5 -180 64.3% w/ vig 61.6% —
VGK -1.5 +150 40.0% w/ vig 38.4% —
Total 4.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -112 52.8% w/ vig 50.4% —
Under u6.5 -108 51.9% w/ vig 49.6% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
TOR
+1.5 -180
+142
O 6.5 -112
VGK
-1.5 +150
-170
U 6.5 -108

Model vs market

Projected score
TOR 2.47 – VGK 3.97
Projected total
6.63
Market 6.5 · model +0.1
Projected margin
VGK 1.5
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
TOR ML Moneyline · +142 39.6% 29.1% — — 🔒
VGK ML Moneyline · -170 60.4% 70.9% — — 🔒
TOR +1.5 Spread · -180 61.6% 54.1% — — 🔒
VGK -1.5 Spread · +150 38.4% 45.9% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -112 50.4% 51.0% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -108 49.6% 49.0% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines TOR–VGK

3–3
5.9%
2–2
5.5%
2–3
4.8%
2–4
4.7%
3–4
3.9%
1–3
3.9%
Over 5.5: 62%Over 6.5: 51%

Why the model leans this way 11 inputs: 10 favor VGK, 1 favor TOR, 0 even.

VGK
Strong edge to VGK: Rest (1d rest vs 1d rest) — TOR 1 vs VGK 1.
VGK
Moderate edge to VGK: Shot Quality (5v5 xGF%) — TOR 46.0 vs VGK 54.2.
VGK
Moderate edge to VGK: Elo Rating — TOR 1,411 vs VGK 1,544.
VGK
Moderate edge to VGK: Attack vs Defense — TOR 40.2 vs VGK 59.9.
TOR
Slight edge to TOR: Goaltending GSAx/60 (Sergei Bobrovsky vs Adin Hill) — TOR -0.13 vs VGK -0.26.
All 11 model inputs
Input TOR VGK Edge
Rest (1d rest vs 1d rest) 1 1 VGK
Shot Quality (5v5 xGF%) 46.0 54.2 VGK
Elo Rating 1,411 1,544 VGK
Attack vs Defense 40.2 59.9 VGK
Goaltending GSAx/60 (Sergei Bobrovsky vs Adin Hill) -0.13 -0.26 TOR
Special Teams (PP/PK %) 21.4 31.2 VGK
Faceoff Win % 51.1 53.0 VGK
Sharp ML Money 58.0 61.0 VGK
Recent Form (pts/game) 1.34 1.64 VGK
Home Ice Advantage 0 1 VGK
Season Strength (atk/def) 0.99 1.07 VGK

Each input compares the two teams and pushes the projection toward one side; the biggest pushes (weight × size) are listed above.

Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.08 #15/32
Goals / game
3.37 #7/32
3.32 #27/32
Goals against / game
2.96 #9/32
30.0 #8/32
Shots for / game
30.8 #6/32
26.2 #13/32
Shots against / game
23.2 #7/32
21.4% #17/32
Power play %
31.2% #9/32
90.9% #5/32
Penalty kill %
83.3% #13/32
51.1% #13/32
Faceoff %
53.0% #8/32
0.99 #16/32
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.07 #7/32
1.05 #27/32
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.97 #9/32
1.34 #10/32
Form points / game
1.64 #4/32
1411 #29/32
Elo
1544 #12/32
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
46.0%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
54.2%
2.23
xGF / 60
2.55
2.62
xGA / 60
2.15
47.8%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
52.8%
38.0%
High-danger shot share
52.9%
7.02
Power play xGF / 60
7.99
7.42
Penalty kill xGA / 60
5.75

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Sergei Bobrovsky Goalie priced Adin Hill
-0.13
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.26
+1.1
GSAx this season
-0.5
-12.2
GSAx last season
-14.2
88.2%
Save %
87.7%
2.97
Goals-against avg
2.88
2
Starts
1

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Toronto Maple Leafs
Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky Probable
1 day rest
✈ -3h time-zone shift
Vegas Golden Knights
Goalie Adin Hill Confirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

TOR · last 6
WWLWLW
VGK · last 6
WLWLWW
Home / road splits (per game)
VGK at home
Scores 3.50 · allows 3.12
TOR on the road
Scores 2.96 · allows 3.56

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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