MLB picks
MLB American Family Field 🌤 58°F · wind 5 mph (4 in) · rain 4% · retractable roof
Away

Tampa Bay Rays

98-64
@ Proj 3.33–4.41
Home

Milwaukee Brewers

103-59
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ MIL run line opened +1.5, now -1.5
Run line
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TB +1.5 open -1.5 — —
MIL -1.5 open +1.5 — —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Model vs market

Projected score
TB 3.33 – MIL 4.41
Projected total
7.74
Projected margin
MIL 1.1

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 20 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Pitching, hitting & bullpen Brighter bar = better

Starting pitchers Pitch tracking · season stats · as of 2026-10-23
Drew Rasmussen (RHP) Starter Logan Henderson (RHP)
2.83
ERA
2.33
3.06
xERA
2.74
3.22
FIP
3.35
3.44
Model skill (RA9) league 4.27
3.26
1.02
WHIP
0.87
0.271
xwOBA against league 0.314
0.257
26.0%
Strikeout % league 22.2%
29.6%
4.8%
Walk % league 8.9%
5.1%
25.1%
Whiff %
26.5%
5.9%
Barrel % allowed
8.3%
33.8%
Hard-hit % allowed
36.9%
8.6
K / 9
10.4
1.29
Last 3 starts ERA
2.57
6.5
Avg innings / start (L5)
4.8
6
Days rest
12
95
Last pitch count
64

Model skill blends xERA, K−BB%, FIP and ERA, regressed toward league average with 70 IP of ballast.

Offense Batted-ball tracking · season stats · as of 2026-10-23
4.54
Runs / game
5.14
4.14
Runs / game, last 7
4.43
0.304
Team xwOBA league 0.314
0.321
0.320
Team wOBA
0.328
0.752
OPS vs today’s starter hand
0.759
0.728
OPS
0.744
0.326
On-base %
0.341
0.402
Slugging
0.403
0.258
Batting avg
0.258
5.7%
Barrel %
7.4%
34.6%
Hard-hit %
40.3%
88.0 mph
Avg exit velocity
89.4 mph
Bullpen & workload Season stats · as of 2026-10-23
3.99
Bullpen ERA league 4.09
3.40
4.00
High-leverage arms ERA
3.45
1.20
Bullpen WHIP
1.23
8.4
Bullpen K / 9
8.9
75%
Save %
72%
Team pitching Season stats
3.70
Team ERA
3.51
1.14
Team WHIP
1.18

Starting pitchers & lineups

Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher Drew Rasmussen Probable
RHP · 6 days rest · 95 pitches last out
Lineup not posted yet
Milwaukee Brewers
Pitcher Logan Henderson Probable
RHP · 12 days rest · 64 pitches last out
Lineup not posted yet

Park & game conditions

Park factor
0.96
American Family Field · runs (1.00 = average) · HR 1.03
Weather at first pitch
58°F · wind 5 mph (4 in) · rain 4% · retractable roof
Weather run multiplier x1.000
Run multipliers
TB x0.991 · MIL x0.998
Starter, bullpen, platoon, lineup and luck adjustments combined

Park factors: 3-year batted-ball index. Weather: forecast at first pitch; retractable roofs are not priced.

Form & trends

Trends
  • TB scoring 4.1 runs / game over the last 7
  • MIL scoring 4.4 runs / game over the last 7

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Pitch trackingSeason statsBatted-ball trackingWeather forecastOdds: sportsbook consensus

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