Back to College Football Picks
EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

0-1
Final
20 – 70

Georgia Bulldogs

1-0
Q1 0–21
Q2 6–28
Q3 0–14
Q4 14–7
2026-09-12T16:45:00+00:00 Sanford Stadium
WKU 12%
88% UGA
WKU 9.0 – 52.0 UGA projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
WKU
+40.5 -110
–
O 55.5 -110
UGA
-40.5 -110
–
U 55.5 -110

Best Pick

🔒 Locked

Buy credits or subscribe for $39.99/mo

Model Analysis 🔒

+60.8 Favors Georgia Bulldogs (UGA) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market UGA -40.5 Model UGA -43.0
2.5 pt edge → UGA covers
Total (O/U)
Market 55.5 Model 61.0
3.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 55.5

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors UGA, − favors WKU.

Power / Efficiency +100.0
WKUUGA
Favors UGA
Situational +38.0
WKUUGA
Favors UGA
Sharp Money +68.3
WKUUGA
Favors UGA
Matchup +7.1
WKUUGA
Favors UGA
How factors were scored · 11 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

WKU Factor value UGA
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 UGA
4.32
11.00
Georgia Bulldogs: 11.00 vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 4.32
Scoring Power (PPG) +100 UGA
14.0
63.0
Georgia Bulldogs: 63.0 vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 14.0
Defensive Strength +100 UGA
49.0
3.0
Georgia Bulldogs allows 3.0 vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 49.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 UGA
5.1
11.8
Georgia Bulldogs: 11.8 vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 5.1
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +100 UGA
3.9
10.1
Georgia Bulldogs: 10.1 vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 3.9
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 UGA
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +57 UGA
19.0
37.0
Money 37% vs tickets 19% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 UGA
81.0
19.0
Contrarian: public 19% home
Sharp vs Public (Total) +54 EVEN
29.0
46.0
Total money 46% over vs tickets 29%
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +100 UGA
35.3%
66.7%
Georgia Bulldogs: 66.7% vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 35.3%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -100 WKU
3.0
0.0
Georgia Bulldogs: 0.0 vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 3.0

Team Stats Comparison

WKU Stat UGA
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
14.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
63.0
4.32
Yards / Play
11.00
203
Pass Yards / Game
388
164
Rush Yards / Game
272
5.1
Yards / Pass Att
11.8
3.9
Yards / Carry
10.1
60.0
Completion %
75.8
35.3
3rd Down %
66.7
85
Plays / Game
60
Defense
49.0
Points Allowed
3.0
8.38
YPP Allowed
1.79
163
Pass Yds Allowed
99
323
Rush Yds Allowed
10
10.2
Opp Yards / Pass Att
3.8
3.0
Sacks / Game
0.0
Ball Security & Kicking
Splits & Betting Record
-35.0
Point Diff / Game
+60.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 9491 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
WKU
81%
of tickets
UGA
19%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
WKU
63%
of handle
UGA
37%
of handle
Money is UGA-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
71%
of tickets
Over
29%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

WKU
No report
UGA
No report
81°F 18

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected WKU 9.0 – UGA 52.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.