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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Mississippi State Bulldogs

1-0
1:57 - 4th
31 – 13

Minnesota Golden Gophers

1-0
Q1 14–3
Q2 14–3
Q3 3–7
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Huntington Bank Stadium
MSST 20%
80% MINN
MSST 12.0 – 25.2 MINN projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
MSST
-1.5 -110
-110
O 53.5 -110
MINN
+1.5 -110
-110
U 53.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+39.3 Favors Minnesota Golden Gophers (MINN) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market MINN +1.5 Model MINN -13.2
14.7 pt edge → MINN covers · pick Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.5
Total (O/U)
Market 53.5 Model 37.3
16.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 53.5
Moneyline
Model: MINN 80% win Market MINN -110
27.1% edge · pick Minnesota Golden Gophers ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors MINN, − favors MSST.

Power / Efficiency -21.6
MSSTMINN
Favors MSST
Situational +38.0
MSSTMINN
Favors MINN
Sharp Money +91.0
MSSTMINN
Favors MINN
Matchup +100.0
MSSTMINN
Favors MINN
How factors were scored · 8 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

MSST Factor value MINN
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 MSST
9.65
6.97
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 6.97 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: 9.65
Scoring Power (PPG) -42 MSST
62.0
59.0
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 59.0 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: 62.0
Defensive Strength +93 MINN
13.0
7.0
Minnesota Golden Gophers allows 7.0 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: 13.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +30 MINN
9.9
10.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 10.5 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: 9.9
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 MSST
9.3
3.9
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 3.9 vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: 9.3
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 MINN
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +91 MSST
24.0
76.0
Contrarian: public 76% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +100 MINN
50.0%
66.7%
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 66.7% vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: 50.0%

Team Stats Comparison

MSST Stat MINN
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
62.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
59.0
9.65
Yards / Play
6.97
417
Pass Yards / Game
348
345
Rush Yards / Game
147
9.9
Yards / Pass Att
10.5
9.3
Yards / Carry
3.9
64.3
Completion %
78.8
50.0
3rd Down %
66.7
79
Plays / Game
71
Defense
13.0
Points Allowed
7.0
3.97
YPP Allowed
2.50
140
Pass Yds Allowed
59
138
Rush Yds Allowed
51
5.0
Opp Yards / Pass Att
3.9
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+49.0
Point Diff / Game
+52.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
8

Betting Splits 19387 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
MSST
24%
of tickets
MINN
76%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
MSST
18%
of handle
MINN
82%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
55%
of tickets
Over
45%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

MSST
No report
MINN
No report
73°F 2

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected MSST 12.0 – MINN 25.2

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.