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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Arizona State Sun Devils

1-1
Final
20 – 48

Texas A&M Aggies

2-0
Q1 7–7
Q2 3–10
Q3 10–7
Q4 0–24
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Kyle Field
ASU 88%
12% TA&M
ASU 52.0 – 12.9 TA&M projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
ASU
+15.5 -110
+550
O 51.5 -110
TA&M
-15.5 -110
-800
U 51.5 -110

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Model Analysis 🔒

-33.9 Favors Arizona State Sun Devils (ASU) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market TA&M -15.5 Model TA&M +39.1
54.6 pt edge → ASU value
Total (O/U)
Market 51.5 Model 64.9
3.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 51.5
Moneyline
Model: TA&M 12% win Market TA&M -800
72.6% edge · pick Arizona State Sun Devils ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors TA&M, − favors ASU.

Power / Efficiency -100.0
ASUTA&M
Favors ASU
Situational +38.0
ASUTA&M
Favors TA&M
Sharp Money -47.7
ASUTA&M
Favors ASU
Matchup 0.0
ASUTA&M
Even
How factors were scored · 6 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

ASU Factor value TA&M
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 ASU
9.33
5.80
Texas A&M Aggies: 5.80 vs Arizona State Sun Devils: 9.33
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 ASU
70.0
50.0
Texas A&M Aggies: 50.0 vs Arizona State Sun Devils: 70.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 ASU
12.0
7.1
Texas A&M Aggies: 7.1 vs Arizona State Sun Devils: 12.0
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 ASU
7.1
5.0
Texas A&M Aggies: 5.0 vs Arizona State Sun Devils: 7.1
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 TA&M
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -48 ASU
62.0
47.0
Money 47% vs tickets 62% on home

Team Stats Comparison

ASU Stat TA&M
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
70.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
50.0
9.33
Yards / Play
5.80
432
Pass Yards / Game
269
249
Rush Yards / Game
236
12.0
Yards / Pass Att
7.1
7.1
Yards / Carry
5.0
72.2
Completion %
65.8
50.0
3rd Down %
50.0
73
Plays / Game
87
Defense
7.0
Points Allowed
0.0
3.69
YPP Allowed
1.63
86
Pass Yds Allowed
30
102
Rush Yds Allowed
37
3.6
Opp Yards / Pass Att
1.8
2.0
Sacks / Game
2.0
Ball Security & Kicking
0.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+63.0
Point Diff / Game
+0.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 18417 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
ASU
38%
of tickets
TA&M
62%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
ASU
53%
of handle
TA&M
47%
of handle
Money is ASU-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
53%
of tickets
Over
47%
of tickets

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected ASU 52.0 – TA&M 12.9

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.